Global| Dec 23 2004U.S. Personal Income Rebounded
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Personal income rose a moderate 0.3% last month following the unrevised 0.6% spurt in October. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.2% rise. The gain in wages & salaries eased to 0.2% (+4.6% y/y) after the 0.6% surge in October. [...]
Personal income rose a moderate 0.3% last month following the unrevised 0.6% spurt in October. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.2% rise.
The gain in wages & salaries eased to 0.2% (+4.6% y/y) after the 0.6% surge in October. Factory sector wages eked out a 0.1% (1.1% y/y) gain after falling 0.1% the prior month.
Personal disposable income rose 0.3% (4.9% y/y), half the gain in October. Disposable income growth adjusted for inflation was stable m/m at 0.2% (2.2% y/y).
Personal consumption eased as well, growing 0.2%, one quarter the rise in October. A 2.4% decline in durable goods spending reflected a 3.4% m/m drop in total sales of light motor vehicles. Spending on nondurables also eased, up 0.4% after a 1.6% spike in October. However, services spending picked up and grew 0.6% (5.6% y/y), up from the 0.4%-0.5% range of the prior three months.
The PCE chain price index rose just 0.1%, reflecting the recent decline in gasoline prices. Less food & energy prices rose 0.1% (1.5% y/y), the average for the last eight months.
"Open Mouth Operations: A Swiss Case Study" of a central bank's impact on the slope of the yield curve from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis can be found here.
| Disposition of Personal Income | Nov | Oct | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Personal Income | 0.3% | 0.6% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 3.5% |
| Personal Consumption | 0.2% | 0.8% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 4.7% |
| Savings Rate | 0.3% | 0.1% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.8% |
| PCE Chain Price Index | 0.1% | 0.4% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.1% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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