Global| Feb 28 2014U.S. Pending Home Sales Remain Depressed by Winter Storms
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that pending sales of single-family homes ticked up 0.1% during January following a 5.8% December decline, revised from an 8.7% shortfall. The latest uptick followed six consecutive [...]
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that pending sales of single-family homes ticked up 0.1% during January following a 5.8% December decline, revised from an 8.7% shortfall. The latest uptick followed six consecutive months of sharp decline. Therefore, sales were 14.3% below the peak last June. Expectations had been for a 1.8% rise according to Bloomberg. Data were revised back through 2011.
Home sales were mixed across the country last month. In the South, sales rose 3.5% (-5.5% y/y) following a 5.7% December drop. Sales remained down 7.7% from the May peak. In the Northeast, a 2.3% rise (-5.3% y/y) followed two months of sharp decline. Sales remained 12.3% lower than the peak last April. In the West, sales declined 4.8% (-17.5% y/y) and have fallen in each of the last seven months, a decline totaling more than one-quarter from the peak. In the Midwest, sales fell 2.5% last month (-9.3% y/y), off for the seventh straight month and down 17.6% from the May peak.
The pending home sales figures are analogous to the new home sales data from the Commerce Department. They measure home sales when the sales contract is signed, not at the time the sale is closed. In developing the model for the index, the NAR demonstrated that the level of monthly sales-contract activity parallels the level of closed existing-home sales in the following two months. The series dates back to 2001 and the data are available in Haver's PREALTOR database.
| Pending Home Sales (%) | Jan | Dec | Nov | Y/Y | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.1 | -5.8 | -1.2 | -9.0 | 4.5 | 11.3 | 1.3 |
| Northeast | 2.3 | -7.3 | -2.0 | -5.3 | 6.1 | 16.6 | -4.0 |
| Midwest | -2.5 | -5.2 | -3.1 | -9.3 | 10.4 | 17.7 | 2.2 |
| South | 3.5 | -5.7 | 0.0 | -5.5 | 5.4 | 12.7 | 1.4 |
| West | -4.8 | -5.9 | -0.3 | -17.5 | -3.6 | 1.2 | 3.4 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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