Global| Dec 31 2014U.S. Pending Home Sales Rebound in November
Summary
Pending sales of single-family homes rose 0.8% in November (+4.1% y/y) following a slightly revised 1.2% decrease in October, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). These sales are reported as an index with 2001 = [...]
Pending sales of single-family homes rose 0.8% in November (+4.1% y/y) following a slightly revised 1.2% decrease in October, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). These sales are reported as an index with 2001 = 100; the November value was 104.8. This compares to a peak of 107.0 in April 2005 and a recession low of 77.1 in June 2010.
Home sales in the Northeast were up 1.4% (+7.0% y/y) in November after a 0.5% increase in October. In the South, they were up 1.3% (+5.1% y/y), turning around from a 1.1% decline in October. Sales were also up in the West in November, by 0.4% (+4.9% y/y), following a 3.2% fall in October. But sales edged lower in the Midwest by 0.4% and were also down year/year, by 0.5%; the November decline was the sixth in a row.
The pending home sales figures are analogous to the new home sales data from the Commerce Department. They measure home sales when the sales contract is signed, not at the time the sale is closed. In developing the model for the index, the NAR demonstrated that the level of monthly sales-contract activity parallels the level of closed existing-home sales in the following two months. The series dates back to 2001 and the data are available in Haver's PREALTOR database.
| Pending Home Sales (%, SA) | Nov | Oct | Sep | Y/Y | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.8 | -1.2 | 0.6 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 11.3 | 1.3 |
| Northeast | 1.4 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 7.0 | 6.1 | 16.6 | -4.0 |
| Midwest | -0.4 | -0.8 | -1.2 | -0.5 | 10.4 | 17.7 | 2.2 |
| South | 1.3 | -1.1 | 2.2 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 12.7 | 1.4 |
| West | 0.4 | -3.2 | -0.8 | 4.9 | -3.6 | 1.2 | 3.4 |
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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