Global| Apr 23 2019U.S. New Home Sales Increase As Prices Fall
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
New home sales increased 4.5% (3.0% y/y) during March to 692,000 (AR) following a rise to 662,000 in February, revised from 667,000. It was the highest level of sales since November 2017 and up from the low of 552,000 this past [...]
New home sales increased 4.5% (3.0% y/y) during March to 692,000 (AR) following a rise to 662,000 in February, revised from 667,000. It was the highest level of sales since November 2017 and up from the low of 552,000 this past October. Sales of 648,000 had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. These sales transactions are recorded when sales contracts are signed or deposits are made.
The median price of a new home declined 4.0% last month (-9.7% y/y) to $302,700 after rising 3.9% to a little-revised $315,200 in February. It was the lowest price in just over two years. The average price of a new home fell 2.4% (+1.8% y/y to $376,000.
Sales rose in most regions of the country. Sales in the Midwest strengthened 17.6% (1.2% y/y) to 87,000, repeating the percentage gain in February. New home sales in the West improved 6.7% (-4.3% y/y) to 176,000, the highest level in twelve months. In the South, sales rose 3.6% (9.3% y/y) to 401,000, the highest level since July 2007. To the downside, new home sales in the Northeast declined by nearly one-quarter m/m (-20.0% y/y) to 28,000 and reversed February's rise.
With the increase in sales, the months' supply of homes on the market declined to 6.0 in March, the lowest level in nine months. That was down from a high of 7.4 months in December. The median number of months a new home was on the market after its completion eased to 3.6 months, still up from the low of 2.7 months in October.
The data in this report are available in Haver's USECON database. The consensus expectation figure from Action Economics is available in the AS1REPNA database.
| U.S. New Single-Family Home Sales (SAAR, 000s) | Mar | Feb | Jan | Mar Y/Y % | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 692 | 662 | 625 | 3.0 | 617 | 616 | 560 |
| Northeast | 28 | 36 | 29 | -20.0 | 33 | 40 | 32 |
| Midwest | 87 | 74 | 63 | 1.2 | 76 | 72 | 69 |
| South | 401 | 387 | 372 | 9.3 | 349 | 341 | 317 |
| West | 176 | 165 | 161 | -4.3 | 160 | 164 | 142 |
| Median Price (NSA, $) | 302,700 | 315,200 | 303,500 | -9.7 | 323,125 | 321,633 | 306,500 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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