Global| Jan 27 2014U.S. New Home Sales in 2013 Reach Five-Year High
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
ew home sales declined 7.0% to 414,000 (+4.5% y/y), the second month of decline. November sales were revised lower. The latest figure fell short of expectations for 457,000 sales in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. These volume [...]
New home sales increased 16.7% last year to 430,000 units, adding to the 20.2% during 2012. Sales their highest since 2008. Despite the increases, however, sales remained a fraction of the annual peak of 1.279 million averaged in 2005. During December, new home sales declined 7.0% to 414,000 (+4.5% y/y), the second month of decline. November sales were revised lower. The latest figure fell short of expectations for 457,000 sales in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. These volume numbers are quoted at seasonally adjusted annual rates.
The median price of a new home increased 8.9% last year to a record average $263,600. During December, the price nudged up to $270,200 (4.6% y/y), the highest level since April. The average price of a new home increased 11.3% last year to $317,683 but fell 6.9% (+4.1% y/y) during December to $311,400.
Poor weather crimped sales by more than one-third m/m in the Northeast to 21,000 (-27.6% y/y). Sales also fell 8.8% (+5.1% y/y) to 103,000 in the West while sales were off 7.3% (+4.1 y/y) in the South to 230,000, the second month of sharp decline. To the upside, home sales rose 17.6% (25.0% y/y) in the Midwest to 60,000.
Recent weakness in sales was, nevertheless, accompanied by monthly declines in the inventory of unsold homes, off for three months running (+14.0%). The months' sales supply of new homes rose to 5.0, the highest level in three months. The length of time to sell a new home held m/m at 3.2 months, compared to 14.0 months at the end of 2009.
The data in this report are available in Haver's USECON database. The consensus expectation figure is from the Action Economics survey and is available in the AS1REPNA database.
| U.S. New Home Sales | Dec | Nov | Oct | Y/Y | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total SAAR, 000s | 414 | 445 | 463 | 4.5% | 430 | 368 | 306 |
| Northeast | 21 | 33 | 33 | -27.6 | 31 | 29 | 21 |
| Midwest | 60 | 51 | 70 | 25.0 | 60 | 47 | 45 |
| South | 230 | 248 | 273 | 4.1 | 233 | 196 | 168 |
| West | 103 | 113 | 87 | 5.1 | 106 | 97 | 72 |
| Median Price (NSA, $) | 270,200 | 268,500 | 260,300 | 4.6 | 263,600 | 242,108 | 224,317 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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