Global| Feb 26 2014U.S. New Home Sales Improve Unexpectedly to Five-Year High
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Harsh winter weather didn't discourage home buyers last month. New home sales improved 9.6% to 468,000 (2.2% y/y), the highest level since July 2008. December sales were revised to 427,000 from 414,000. The latest figure beat [...]
Harsh winter weather didn't discourage home buyers last month. New home sales improved 9.6% to 468,000 (2.2% y/y), the highest level since July 2008. December sales were revised to 427,000 from 414,000. The latest figure beat expectations for 400,000 sales in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. These volume numbers are quoted at seasonally adjusted annual rates.
Sales in the South improved 10.4% to 276,000 (22.7% y/y), a new high for the recovery. In the Northeast sales recovered by three-quarters m/m to 33,000 (3.1% y/y) following a sharp December decline. Sales in the West also rebounded 11.0% to 111,000 (-23.4% y/y) and reversed December softness. Working the other way, new home sales in the Midwest fell 17.2% to 48,000 (-14.3% y/y), the lowest level since December 2012.
The median price of a new home during January fell 2.2% to $260,100 (+3.4% y/y) from a downwardly revised December reading. The average price of a new home increased 4.5% last month to $322,800 (5.2% y/y).
Sales improvement left the inventory of unsold homes roughly unchanged during the last four months (+23.5%). The months' sales supply of new homes fell to 4.7, the lowest level since June. The length of time to sell a new home ticked up m/m to 3.3 months, still down from 14.0 months at the end of 2009.
The data in this report are available in Haver's USECON database. The consensus expectation figure is from the Action Economics survey and is available in the AS1REPNA database.
Economic Conditions and Monetary Policy: A Transitional Phase Introduction from John C. Williams, President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco is available here.
| U.S. New Home Sales | Jan | Dec | Nov | Y/Y % | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total SAAR, 000s | 468 | 427 | 444 | 2.2 | 430 | 368 | 306 |
| Northeast | 33 | 19 | 32 | 3.1 | 31 | 29 | 21 |
| Midwest | 48 | 58 | 54 | -14.3 | 60 | 47 | 45 |
| South | 276 | 250 | 247 | 22.7 | 233 | 196 | 168 |
| West | 111 | 100 | 111 | -23.4 | 106 | 97 | 72 |
| Median Price (NSA, $) | 260,100 | 265,900 | 269,200 | 3.4 | 263,633 | 242,108 | 224,317 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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