Global| Jan 31 2019U.S. New Home Sales Improve as Prices Plummet
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The government shutdown delayed the report covering November new single-family home sales, but the information in the report is worthy of note. New home sales jumped 16.9% (-7.7% y/y) to 657,000 (SAAR) and recovered October's 8.3% [...]
The government shutdown delayed the report covering November new single-family home sales, but the information in the report is worthy of note. New home sales jumped 16.9% (-7.7% y/y) to 657,000 (SAAR) and recovered October's 8.3% drop. It was the highest level of sales since March. Sales of 564,000 had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. These sales transactions are recorded when sales contracts are signed or deposits are made.
The median price of a new home fell 7.0% (-11.9% y/y) in November to $302,400, the lowest price since February 2017. The average price of a new home declined to $362,400 (-6.7% y/y), also the lowest price since February 2017.
By region, a m/m doubling of sales in the Northeast to 46,000 (150% y/y) was accompanied by a nearly one-third m/m rise (-2.5% y/y) in the Midwest to 77,000. New home sales in the South rose 20.6% to 160,000 (-0.8% y/y) but sales in the West declined 5.9% (-25.9% y/y) to 160,000.
The months' supply of homes on the market declined to 6.0 in November, a five-month low. The figure was higher than the recent low of 4.5 months in July 2016. The median number of months a new home was on the market after its completion rose to a still low 3.1 months.
The data in this report are available in Haver's USECON database. The consensus expectation figure from Action Economics is available in the AS1REPNA database.
| U.S. New Single-Family Home Sales (SAAR, 000s) | Nov | Oct | Sep | Nov Y/Y % | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 657 | 562 | 613 | -7.7 | 616 | 560 | 502 |
| Northeast | 46 | 23 | 27 | 15.0 | 40 | 32 | 25 |
| Midwest | 77 | 59 | 77 | -2.5 | 72 | 69 | 61 |
| South | 374 | 310 | 346 | -0.8 | 341 | 317 | 286 |
| West | 160 | 170 | 163 | -25.9 | 164 | 142 | 130 |
| Median Price (NSA, $) | 302,400 | 325,100 | 330,300 | -11.9 | 321,633 | 306,500 | 293,733 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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