Global| Oct 26 2020U.S. New Home Sales Ease in September as Prices Rise
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
• New single-family home sales slipped but remain sharply higher y/y. • Sales declined modestly throughout most of the country. The market for new single-family homes has cooled recently. Sales declined 3.5% (+32.1% y/y) to 959,000 [...]
• New single-family home sales slipped but remain sharply higher y/y.
• Sales declined modestly throughout most of the country.
The market for new single-family homes has cooled recently. Sales declined 3.5% (+32.1% y/y) to 959,000 (AR) during September from 994,000 in August, revised from 1.011 million. Sales had rebounded at double-digit rates m/m during the prior three months from their 570,000 low in April. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a rise in sales to 1.023 million last month.
Purchases of new homes eased m/m throughout most of the country. Sales were weakest in the Northeast where they fell 28.9% (-5.9% y/y) to 32,000, off 38.5% during the last three months. Sales in the South fell 4.7% (+27.4% y/y) to 563,000, but were still near the highest sales level since the middle of`2006. Sales in the Midwest declined 4.1% (+34.8% y/y) to 93,000, up from the recession low of 74,000. Elsewhere in the country, sales improved. Sales in the West increased 3.8% (49.7% y/y) to 271,000, the highest level since Q2'06, nearly double the April low.
The median price of a new home rose 1.4% (3.5% y/y) to $326,800 in September. Prices have been moving irregularly sideways since the middle of 2017. The average price of a new home jumped 5.9% (8.9% y/y) to a record $405,400 in September. These prices are not seasonally adjusted.
The months' supply of new homes on the market remained low in September at 3.6 months, down from the April high of 6.8 months. The median number of months a new home stayed on the market slipped to 4.0 months in September, up from 3.5 months twelve months earlier.
New home sales activity and prices are available in Haver's USECON database. The consensus expectation figure from Action Economics is available in the AS1REPNA database.
| U.S. New Single-Family Home Sales (SAAR, 000s) | Sep | Aug | Jul | Sep Y/Y % | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 959 | 994 | 965 | 32.1 | 685 | 614 | 616 |
| Northeast | 32 | 45 | 43 | -5.9 | 30 | 32 | 40 |
| Midwest | 93 | 97 | 127 | 34.8 | 72 | 75 | 72 |
| South | 563 | 591 | 554 | 27.4 | 400 | 347 | 341 |
| West | 271 | 261 | 241 | 49.7 | 183 | 160 | 164 |
| Median Price (NSA, $) | 326,800 | 322,400 | 329,900 | 3.5 | 319,267 | 323,125 | 321,633 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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