Global| Jul 25 2018U.S. New Home Sales Decline While Prices Plummet
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Strength in the new housing market gave way to weakness last month. New single-family home sales declined 5.3% (+2.4% y/y) to 631,000 (SAAR) during June and more-than-reversed May's 3.9% increase to 666,000, revised from 689,000. It [...]
Strength in the new housing market gave way to weakness last month. New single-family home sales declined 5.3% (+2.4% y/y) to 631,000 (SAAR) during June and more-than-reversed May's 3.9% increase to 666,000, revised from 689,000. It was the lowest level of sales since October and was down from November's high of 712,000. Expectations had been for 670,000 sales in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Sales are calculated when contracts are closed and are tabulated by the National Association of Realtors.
The median price of a new home weakened 2.5% (-4.2% y/y) to $302,100 from $309,700, revised from $313,000. It was the lowest price since February of last year. The average price of a new home slipped 0.5% (-2.0% y/y) to $363,300, the lowest price since January 2017.
New home sales declined last month throughout most of the country. Home sales in the Midwest fell 13.4% (+7.6% y/y) to 71,000, the lowest point in six months. New home sales in the South declined 7.7% (+8.1% y/y) to 361,000. In the West, new home sales fell 5.2% (-15.0% y/y) to 147,000, the lowest level since August of last year and down from November's 216,000 high. Working the other way, new home sales in the Northeast surged by more than one-third m/m (20.9% y/y) to 52,000, the highest level since December 2007.
The months' supply of homes on the market improved m/m to 5.7 but has been moving irregularly sideways since 2012. The median number of months a new home was on the market fell to 3.4, the lowest point since January.
The data in this report are available in Haver's USECON database. The consensus expectation figure from Action Economics is available in the AS1REPNA database.
Preview of the 2018 Comprehensive Update of the National Income and Product Accounts from the Bureau of Economic Analysis is available here.
| U.S. New Single-Family Home Sales (SAAR, 000s) | Jun | May | Apr | Jun Y/Y % | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 631 | 666 | 641 | 2.4 | 616 | 560 | 502 |
| Northeast | 52 | 38 | 35 | 20.9 | 40 | 32 | 25 |
| Midwest | 71 | 82 | 93 | 7.6 | 72 | 69 | 61 |
| South | 361 | 391 | 346 | 8.1 | 341 | 317 | 286 |
| West | 147 | 155 | 167 | -15.0 | 164 | 142 | 130 |
| Median Price (NSA, $) | 302,100 | 309,700 | 314,800 | -4.2 | 321,633 | 306,500 | 293,733 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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