Global| Jul 13 2007U.S. June Retail Sales Fell After Huge Gain in May
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
In June, US retail sales fell 0.9% after a 1.5% gain during May that was revised from 1.4%. The figure for last month fell short of Consensus expectations for a modest 0.1% rise. Excluding autos, retail sales fell 0.4% but a revised [...]
In June, US retail sales fell 0.9% after a 1.5% gain during May that was revised from 1.4%. The figure for last month fell short of Consensus expectations for a modest 0.1% rise.
Excluding autos, retail sales fell 0.4% but a revised 1.6% rise during May was initially reported as up 1.3%.Expectations were for a 0.2% increase.Nonauto retail sales less gasoline fell 0.3% (+4.6% y/y) last month after a revised 1.3% spurt during May, initially reported at up 1.0%.
Sales by motor vehicle & parts dealers fell 2.9% (+2.0% y/y), even though new unit vehicle sales fell 3.5% m/m
Gasoline service station sales fell 1.1% after a 4.1% surge during May which reflected a 10.6% ruse in gas prices at the pump which then fell 2.9% during June to an average $3.06 per gallon (5.9% y/y).
Sales of discretionary items were generally firm last month. Sales at general merchandise stores added 0.3% (4.8% y/y) after an upwardly revised 1.0% May increase.Apparel store sales fell 1.4% (+4.8% y/y) after a 2.5% spurt during May. Furniture, home furnishings & appliance stores posted one of weakest showings last month with a 2.2% (-0.1% y/y) decline after a modest 0.7% May rise.
Building material sales fell 2.3%% (-0.1% y/y). Sales of nonstore retailers (internet & catalogue) rose 1.2% (9.5% y/y) but restaurant and bar sales rose only 0.1% (5.9% y/y) after a 0.6% May increaseHow Worrisome Is a Negative Saving Rate? From the Federal Reserve Bank of New York can be found here.
| June | May | Y/Y | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales & Food Services | -0.9% | 1.5% | 3.8% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.1% |
| Excluding Autos | -0.4% | 1.6% | 4.2% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.1% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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