Global| Mar 26 2015U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Return to Five-Week Low
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The labor market remains on a firm footing. Initial claims for jobless insurance in the week ended March 21 declined to 282,000 from an unrevised 291,000 during the prior week. The four-week moving average of initial claims fell to [...]
The labor market remains on a firm footing. Initial claims for jobless insurance in the week ended March 21 declined to 282,000 from an unrevised 291,000 during the prior week. The four-week moving average of initial claims fell to 297,000, the lowest level in one month. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 291,000 claims in the latest week. During the last ten years, there has been a 76% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance in the week ended March 14 declined to 2.416 million, the lowest level in four weeks. The four-week moving average ticked up to 2.422 million and has trended sideways since January.
The insured rate of unemployment remained at 1.8%, about where it's been since September.
By state, in the week ended March 7, the insured rate of unemployment continued to vary greatly with Florida (0.83%), North Carolina (0.99%), Georgia (1.01%), Louisiana (1.11%), Arizona (1.13%) and New Hampshire (1.28%) at the low end of the range. At the high end were Nevada (2.48%), Michigan (2.51%), Maine (2.55%), California (2.82%), Massachusetts (3.12%) and New Jersey (3.65%). These data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
The Effect of Winter Weather on U.S. Economic Activity from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago is available here.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 03/21/15 | 03/14/15 | 03/07/15 | Y/Y % | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 282 | 291 | 290 | -9.9 | 309 | 343 | 374 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,416 | 2,422 | -14.1 | 2,599 | 2,978 | 3,319 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2.2 (03/14) |
2.0 | 2.3 | 2.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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