GlobalInitial claims for jobless insurance ticked up last week to 308,000, but that was just slightly higher than the low early last month of 294,000. During the prior week ended September 21, claims were revised up to 307,000 from 305,000. Expectations had been for an increase in claims to 315,000, according to the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The four-week moving average of initial claims fell to 305,000, its lowest level since late-May 2007.
The U.S. Department of Labor has indicated that there will be no jobs report tomorrow due the government shutdown. During the last ten years there has been a 75% correlation between the level of initial unemployment insurance claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance in the week ended September 21 increased to 2.925 million (-10.7% y/y) from 2.821 million a week earlier. The four-week moving average of continuing claims fell to a cycle-low of 2.837 million. The insured rate of unemployment ticked up to 2.3%. This particular count covers only "regular" programs and does not include all extended benefit and other specialized jobless insurance programs. In the week of September 14, the latest figure available, the total of all benefit recipients inched up to 4.002 million (-21.3% y/y). This broader measure is not seasonally adjusted. It compares to a cycle peak of 12.060 million in January 2010 and pre-recession figures that averaged 2.596 million for 2007. The number of individuals who were collecting emergency and extended payments in the week of September 14 rose slightly to 1.470 million (-31.4% y/y).
By state, the insured rate of unemployment continued to vary greatly with North Dakota (0.38%), Virginia (1.11%), Louisiana (1.30%), Ohio (1.33%), Indiana (1.44%), Maine (1.50%) and Texas (1.51%) at the low end of the range. At the high end were Michigan (1.68%), Wisconsin (1.99%), New York (2.34%), California (2.43%), Illinois (2.44%), Pennsylvania (2.70%) and New Jersey (3.07%).
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The consensus estimates come from the Action Economics survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 09/28/13 | 09/21/13 | 09/14/13 | Y/Y % | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 308 | 307 | 311 | -16.3 | 375 | 409 | 459 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,925 | 2,821 | -10.7 | 3,318 | 3,744 | 4,544 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.6 (9/12) |
2.6 | 3.0 | 3.6 |
| Total "All Programs" (NSA) | -- | -- | 4.002 mil. | -21.3 | 6.047 mil. | 7.750 mil. | 9.850 mil. |
U.S. ISM Nonmanufacturing Index Retreats The Composite Index for the service and construction sectors
from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) pulled back to 54.4 during
September from an unrevised 58.6 in August. The latest figure was the
lowest since June and disappointed consensus expectations for 57.5. Since
the series' inception in 1997 there has been a 75% correlation between the
level of the nonmanufacturing composite index and the q/q change in real
GDP for the service and the construction sectors. Haver Analytics calculates a composite index using the ISM
nonmanufacturing and the ISM manufacturing sector index released on
Tuesday. The September figure also fell sharply to 54.6, the lowest level
in three months. During the last ten years there has been a 74%
correlation between the composite index and the quarterly change in real
GDP. Declines in the component series were led by a lower business activity
series, which reversed the gains of the prior two months. The supplier
deliveries index also declined sharply to 50.0, indicating the fastest
delivery speeds this year. The employment index fell hard to 52.7, its
lowest since May. Since the series' inception in 1997, there has been an
88% correlation between the level of the ISM nonmanufacturing employment
index and the m/m change in payroll jobs in the service-producing plus the
construction industries. Finally, the new orders series fell just
moderately to 59.6, still the next highest level since February
2011. In contrast to these declines, the prices paid index rose modestly to 57.2.
Sixteen percent of respondents indicated higher prices while 6% reported
them lower. Since inception ten years ago, there has been a 65%
correlation between the price index and the q/q change in the GDP services
chain price index. Beginning with the January 2008 Nonmanufacturing Report On
Business, the composite index is calculated as an indication of
overall economic conditions for the non-manufacturing sector. It is a
composite index based on the diffusion indices of four of the indicators
(business activity, new orders, employment and supplier deliveries) with
equal weights. The ISM data are available in Haver's USECON database. The
expectations figure from ACTION ECONOMICS is in the AS1REPNA database.
by Tom
Moeller October 3, 2013
ISM
Nonmanufacturing Survey (SA)
Sep
Aug
Jul
Sep'12
2012
2011
2010
Composite Diffusion Index
54.4
58.6
56.0
55.2
54.6
54.5
54.1
Business Activity
55.1
62.2
60.4
59.6
57.7
57.2
57.6
New Orders
59.6
60.5
57.7
57.8
56.6
56.3
57.0
Employment
52.7
57.0
53.2
52.0
53.5
52.4
49.8
Supplier Deliveries
(NSA)
50.0
54.5
52.5
51.5
50.6
51.9
52.2
Prices Index
57.2
53.4
60.1
66.1
59.3
65.1
61.4
