Global| May 03 2018U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Edge Higher; Four-Week Moving Average Falls to 45-Year Low
Summary
Initial claims for unemployment insurance edged higher to 211,000 (-12.8% y/y) in the week ending April 28, from an unrevised 209,000 in the prior week. Claims had fallen sharply in the week ending April 21 and the Action Economics [...]
Initial claims for unemployment insurance edged higher to 211,000 (-12.8% y/y) in the week ending April 28, from an unrevised 209,000 in the prior week. Claims had fallen sharply in the week ending April 21 and the Action Economics Forecast Survey expected them to rebound to 226,000. The four-week moving average declined to 221,500 from 229,250. This is the lowest four-week moving average of claims since March 1973. During the last ten years, there has been a 74% correlation between the level of initial claims and the month-to-month change in nonfarm payroll employment.
In the week ending April 21, continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell to 1.756 million (-11.3% y/y) from 1.833 million. The four-week moving average of claimants declined to 1.833 million from 1.849 million. Both continuing claims and their four-week average are at their lowest level since December 1973
The insured rate of unemployment edged down to a new record low of 1.2%.
Insured rates of unemployment varied widely by state. During the week ending April 14, the lowest rates of insured unemployed were Nebraska (0.46%), North Carolina (0.46%), Florida (0.47%), Indiana (0.55%), South Dakota (0.56%), and Tennessee (0.57%). The highest rates were in Illinois (1.94%), Pennsylvania (2.07%), California (2.32%), New Jersey (2.37%), Connecticut (2.45%), and Alaska (3.21%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
| Unemployment Insurance (SA, 000s) | 04/28/18 | 04/21/18 | 04/14/18 | Y/Y % | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 211 | 209 | 233 | -12.8 | 245 | 263 | 278 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 1,756 | 1,833 | -11.3 | 1,961 | 2,136 | 2,267 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.2 | 1.3 |
1.4 |
1.4 | 1.6 | 1.7 |
Gerald D. Cohen
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Gerald Cohen provides strategic vision and leadership of the translational economic research and policy initiatives at the Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise.
He has worked in both the public and private sectors focusing on the intersection between financial markets and economic fundamentals. He was a Senior Economist at Haver Analytics from January 2019 to February 2021. During the Obama Administration Gerald was Deputy Assistant Secretary for Macroeconomic Analysis at the U.S. Department of Treasury where he helped formulate and evaluate the impact of policy proposals on the U.S. economy. Prior to Treasury, he co-managed a global macro fund at Ziff Brothers Investments.
Gerald holds a bachelor’s of science from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a Ph.D. in Economics from Harvard University and is a contributing author to 30-Second Money as well as a co-author of Political Cycles and the Macroeconomy.
More Economy in Brief
