Global| Jun 16 2016U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Increase
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial unemployment insurance claims rose to 277,000 (3.1% y/y) during the week ended June 11 versus an unrevised 264,000 claims in the prior week. It was the first w/w increase since the first week of May. The Action Economics [...]
Initial unemployment insurance claims rose to 277,000 (3.1% y/y) during the week ended June 11 versus an unrevised 264,000 claims in the prior week. It was the first w/w increase since the first week of May. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 268,000 claims. The four-week moving average of claims was steady at 269,250. During the last ten years, there has been a 74% correlation between the level of claims and the m/m change in payroll employment.
In the week ending June 4, continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose to 2.157 million (-3.6% y/y) from 2.112 million. Claims remained near the lowest level since 2000. The four-week moving average also was steady at 2.150 million.
The insured rate of unemployment rose to 1.6%, but remained near the record low.
Insured rates of unemployment across states continued to vary. Near the low end of the range were Nebraska (0.52%), Florida (0.61%), Tennessee (0.77%), Georgia (0.79%), South Carolina (0.80%) and Virginia (0.81%). At the high end of the scale were Rhode Island (1.74%), Massachusetts (1.89%), Illinois (1.88%), Pennsylvania (2.26%), New Jersey (2.27%) and Alaska (3.48%). The state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 06/11/16 | 06/04/16 | 05/28/16 | Y/Y | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 277 | 264 | 268 | 3.1% | 277 | 307 | 342 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,157 | 2,112 | -3.6 | 2,268 | 2,607 | 2,978 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.6 | 1.5 |
1.7 |
1.7 | 2.0 | 2.3 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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