Global| Jul 27 2017U.S. Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Rise
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial unemployment insurance claims increased to 244,000 (-5.2%) during the week ended July 22 from 234,000 in the prior week, revised from 233,000. Expectations called for 240,000 claims in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The [...]
Initial unemployment insurance claims increased to 244,000 (-5.2%) during the week ended July 22 from 234,000 in the prior week, revised from 233,000. Expectations called for 240,000 claims in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The four-week moving average held steady at 244,000. During the last ten years, there has been a 72% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance eased to 1.964 million (-7.9% y/y) in the week ended July 15, and reversed much of the prior week's increase. The four-week moving average of claimants increased to 1.964 million, the highest level since late-April.
The insured unemployment rate remained at the record low of 1.4%.
Insured rates of unemployment continue to vary widely across the country. For the week ended July 8, the lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.32%), Indiana (0.52%), North Carolina (0.57%), Nebraska (0.58%), Florida (0.65%) and Tennessee (0.85%). The highest rates were found in Illinois (1.79%), Massachusetts (1.95%), California (2.13%), Alaska (2.31%), Connecticut (2.53%) and New Jersey (2.72%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.
The unemployment insurance claims data begin January 2, 1971. Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
| Unemployment Insurance (SA, 000s) | 07/22/17 | 07/15/17 | 07/08/17 | Y/Y % | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 244 | 234 | 248 | -5.2 | 263 | 278 | 308 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 1,964 | 1,977 | -7.9 | 2,136 | 2,267 | 2,599 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.4 | 1.4 |
1.6 |
1.6 | 1.7 | 2.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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