Global| Apr 19 2019U.S. Housing Starts Weaken to Nearly Two-Year Low
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
New building activity has failed to garner strength this year. Total housing starts during March eased 0.3% (-14.2% y/y) to 1.139 million (SAAR) from 1.142 million during February, revised from 1.162 million. It was the lowest level [...]
New building activity has failed to garner strength this year. Total housing starts during March eased 0.3% (-14.2% y/y) to 1.139 million (SAAR) from 1.142 million during February, revised from 1.162 million. It was the lowest level of starts since May 2017. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 1.241 million starts.
Starts of single-family homes slipped 0.4% (-11.0% y/y) to 785,000 units from 788,000 in February, which was revised from 805,000. It was the lowest level since September 2016. Multi-family home starts held steady at 354,000 units (-20.4% y/y), the highest level since November.
The decline in new home building was widespread last month. In the Midwest, starts declined 17.6% to 131,000, the lowest level since February 2015. Starts in the South declined 7.2% to 604,000, off 15.5% in two months. Starts in the Northeast fell 4.4% to 86,000 units, off by more than one-quarter y/y. To the upside, in the West starts improved 31.4% to 318,000, but remained down 19.5% y/y.
Building permits eased 1.7% last month (-7.8% y/y) to 1.269 million, the third consecutive monthly decline. Permits to build a single-family home fell 1.1% (-5.1% y/y) to 808,000, the lowest level since August 2017. Multi-family building permits fell 2.7% (-12.4% y/y) to 461,000, a five-month low.
The housing starts and permits figures can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is contained in the AS1REPNA database.
| Housing Starts (000s, SAAR) | Mar | Feb | Jan | Mar Y/Y % | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 1,139 | 1,142 | 1,298 | -14.2 | 1,249 | 1,208 | 1,177 |
| Single-Family | 785 | 788 | 973 | -11.0 | 873 | 852 | 785 |
| Multi-Family | 354 | 354 | 325 | -20.4 | 377 | 356 | 393 |
| Starts By Region | |||||||
| Northeast | 86 | 90 | 146 | -28.3 | 111 | 111 | 116 |
| Midwest | 131 | 159 | 142 | -28.0 | 171 | 180 | 185 |
| South | 604 | 651 | 715 | -4.1 | 631 | 603 | 585 |
| West | 318 | 242 | 295 | -19.5 | 336 | 314 | 292 |
| Building Permits | 1,269 | 1,291 | 1,317 | -7.8 | 1,313 | 1,286 | 1,206 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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