Global| Mar 16 2011U.S. Housing Starts Suffer Another Setback
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Total housing starts slumped by 22.5% during February versus January to the lowest level of the economic recovery. The decline to 479,000 starts was from an upwardly revised 618,000, initially reported as 596,000. The latest figure [...]
Total housing starts slumped by 22.5% during February versus January to
the lowest level of the economic recovery. The decline to 479,000 starts
was from an upwardly revised 618,000, initially reported as 596,000. The
latest figure disappointed Consensus expectations for 570,000 starts
according to Action Economics.
The February decline in starts reflected a 46.1% m/m drop in multi-family to 104,000. The shortfall reversed virtually all of the January increase. Starts of 2-4 unit structures did reverse all of the January gain (-50.0% y/y) while starts of larger units fell back to near December's level of 95,000 (+54.8% y/y). Starts of single-family homes fell by 11.8% from January to 375,000, the lowest level since March, 2009. Starts in the Northeast fell more than one-third m/m (-23.6% y/y) while starts in the Midwest dropped by nearly one-half (-45.7% y/y). Starts in the West fell more than one-quarter to 85,000 (-40.6% y/y) while starts in the South fell 6.3% (-1.1% y/y).
Building permits declined 8.2% m/m (-20.5% y/y), roughly the same as during January. Permits for single-family units fell 9.3% (-27.0% y/y) while multi-family permits fell by 4.9% (+6.3% y/y).
The housing starts figures can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is contained in the AS1REPNA database.
| Housing Starts (000s, SAAR) | Feb | Jan | Dec | Feb Y/Y | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 479 | 618 | 522 | -20.8 | 585 | 554 | 900 |
| Single-Family | 375 | 425 | 419 | -28.8 | 471 | 442 | 616 |
| Multi-Family | 104 | 193 | 103 | 33.3 | 115 | 112 | 284 |
| Starts By Region | |||||||
| Northeast | 55 | 88 | 57 | -23.6 | 72 | 61 | 120 |
| Midwest | 57 | 111 | 66 | -45.7 | 98 | 95 | 134 |
| South | 282 | 301 | 266 | -1.1 | 296 | 281 | 451 |
| West | 85 | 118 | 133 | -40.6 | 121 | 117 | 195 |
| Building Permits | 517 | 563 | 627 | -20.5 | 595 | 583 | 896 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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