Global| Feb 17 2010U.S. Housing Starts Rise But Forward Momentum Is Weak
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Housing starts increased a modest 2.8% last month to 591,000 (AR) units following a slightly revised decline to 575,000 during December. The small gain was only enough, however, to lift starts back to the level reached last summer. In [...]
Housing
starts increased a modest 2.8% last month to 591,000 (AR) units
following a slightly revised decline to 575,000 during December. The
small gain was only enough, however, to lift starts back to the level
reached last summer. In fact, the 21.1% twelve-month increase from near
the recession low pales in comparison to the 50%-90% increases
following downturns since the 1970s. Since their peak in January of
2006, starts remain down by three-quarters. January's figure slightly
beat Consensus expectations for 580,000 starts.
Last month, starts of single-family homes ticked up just 1.5% to 484,000 after December's 3.0% decline. Year-to-year starts have risen by one-third but they're up just 1.5% from the 4Q average. During the last ten years, there has been an 84% correlation between the q/q change in single-family starts and their contribution to quarterly GDP growth. The increase in January starts of single-family units was contained by declines in the Midwest (63.0% y/y) and in the Southern (28.5% y/y) regions of the country. In the Northeast starts rose moderately m/m (82.1% y/y) and in the West starts just recouped the moderate December decline (21.7% y/y).
A 9.2% increase in starts of multi-family units added to firmer increases during the prior two months. Starts of apartments, condominiums & town houses still were down 76.2% from the January 2006 peak.
Despite a moderate 4.9% m/m decline, January building permits remain up by one-quarter from their low last March. Permits to build a single-family home rose slightly m/m and have risen one-half from their low last January.
The housing starts figures can be found in Haver's USECON database.
Mortgage Choice and the Pricing of Fixed-Rate and Adjustable-Rate Mortgages from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco is available here.
| Housing Starts (000s, SAAR) | January | December | November | Nov. Y/Y | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 591 | 575 | 579 | 21.1% | 553 | 900 | 1,342 |
| Single-Family | 484 | 477 | 492 | 35.6 | 440 | 616 | 1,036 |
| Multi-Family | 107 | 98 | 87 | -18.3 | 113 | 285 | 306 |
| Building Permits | 621 | 653 | 589 | 16.9 | 558 | 895 | 1,392 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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