Global| Oct 17 2007U.S. Housing Starts Lowest Since 1992
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
With a 10.2% m/m decline last month, housing starts at 1.191M units fell to the lowest level since 1992. Consensus expectations had been for a lesser drop to 1.29M starts. The August figure was little revised. Single-family starts [...]
With a 10.2% m/m decline last month, housing starts at 1.191M units fell to the lowest level since 1992. Consensus expectations had been for a lesser drop to 1.29M starts. The August figure was little revised.
Single-family starts fell hard for the sixth straight month. At 963M units single family also fell to their lowest since 1992 with a 1.7% fall.
In September, the decline in single family starts was led by an 11.5% (-28.0 y/y) drop in the Midwest. In the West single family starts fell 1.4% (-32.2% y/y) and in the South the m/m decline was limited to 0.2% (-32.4% y/y). Single family starts in the Northeast actually posted a rise of 9.6% (-20.0% y/y) but that is no sign of stabilization as the level was still one third below the the 3Q average.
Starts of multi-family structures fell by one third, month to month to the lowest level since 1994.
Building permits also were weak and fell 7.3% (-25.9% y/y) with single-family permits off a similar 7.1% (-28.6% y/y).
A Tale of Two Crisis from the Federal Reserve Board of St. Louis is available here.
| Housing Starts (000s, AR) | Sept | Aug | July | Y/Y | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 1,191 | 1,327 | 1,371 | -30.8% | 1,812 | 2,073 | 1,950 |
| Single-Family | 963 | 980 | 1,058 | -30.8% | 1,474 | 1,719 | 1,604 |
| Multi-Family | 228 | 347 | 313 | -30.9% | 338 | 354 | 345 |
| Building Permits | 1,226 | 1,322 | 1,389 | -25.9% | 1,842 | 2,159 | 2,058 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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