Global| Feb 18 2021U.S. Housing Starts Decline in January
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
• Total starts back away from 2006 high. • Single-family housing starts are notably weak. • Building permits increase for third straight month. Strength in home building waned last month. Housing starts declined 6.0% (-2.3% y/y) [...]
• Total starts back away from 2006 high.
• Single-family housing starts are notably weak.
• Building permits increase for third straight month.
Strength in home building waned last month. Housing starts declined 6.0% (-2.3% y/y) during January to 1.580 million (AR) from 1.680 million in December, revised from 1.669 million. November starts were revised to 1.553 million from 1.578 million. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 1.658 million starts in January.
Starts of single-family homes declined 12.2% (+17.5% y/y) to 1.162 million from 1.323 million in December, revised from 1.338 million. Offsetting this decline was a 17.1% increase (-33.4% y/y) in multi-family starts to 418,000 from 357,000 in December, revised from 331,000. It was the highest level of multi-family starts in six months.
A 10.4% January increase (22.5% y/y) in building permits to 1.881 million suggests that weakness in housing starts overall will not be long-lived. The January level of permits was the highest since May 2006, increasing from December's 1.704 million. Permits to build single-family homes rose 3.8% (29.9% y/y) to 1.269 million following a 7.6% December gain. Permits to build multi-family homes surged 27.2% (9.5% y/y) to 612,000 from a little-revised 481,000 in December.
By region, housing starts in the Northeast rose 2.3% (-38.2% y/y) to 134,000, the highest level in three months. This increase was offset by declines everywhere else in the country. In the West, starts declined 11.4% (-9.2% y/y) to 396,000, the lowest level in three months. In the South, starts weakened 2.5% (+4.7% y/y) to 829,000 following December's 5.6% increase. Housing starts in the Midwest weakened 12.3% (+28.5% y/y) to 221,000 following a one-third m/m jump during December.
The housing starts and permits figures can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is contained in the AS1REPNA database.
The minutes to the latest FOMC meeting are available here.
| Housing Starts (000s, SAAR) | Jan | Dec | Nov | Jan Y/Y % | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 1,580 | 1,680 | 1,553 | -2.3 | 1,396 | 1,295 | 1,248 |
| Single-Family | 1,162 | 1,323 | 1,181 | 17.5 | 1,000 | 893 | 872 |
| Multi-Family | 418 | 357 | 372 | -33.4 | 396 | 403 | 376 |
| Starts By Region | |||||||
| Northeast | 134 | 131 | 143 | -38.2 | 113 | 115 | 111 |
| Midwest | 221 | 252 | 189 | 28.5 | 194 | 170 | 170 |
| South | 829 | 850 | 805 | 4.7 | 741 | 689 | 630 |
| West | 396 | 447 | 416 | -9.2 | 348 | 322 | 337 |
| Building Permits | 1,881 | 1,704 | 1,635 | 22.5 | 1,438 | 1,386 | 1,329 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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