Global| May 16 2008U.S. Housing Starts April Rise Due to Multi-Family, Single-Family at 27 Year Low
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Housing starts rose unexpectedly during April to 1,032,000 units (AR), an increase of 8.2% following the March decline of 13.8% which was deeper than reported initially. The latest figure was firmer than Consensus expectations for [...]
Housing starts rose unexpectedly during April to 1,032,000 units (AR), an increase of 8.2% following the March decline of 13.8% which was deeper than reported initially. The latest figure was firmer than Consensus expectations for 940,000 starts.
All of the rise in starts last month was due to a 36.0% m/m increase in starts of multi-family units. It recovered nearly all of a March decline that was deeper than reported last month.
Single family starts last month fell 1.7% to 692,000 but the March decline of 2.5% was roughly half the drop reported initially. Nevertheless, single family starts in April were at the lowest level since January of 1991. They have fallen 62.0% since their January 2006 peak. Starts began this quarter 4.6% below the 1Q average.
By region, declines in April starts were spread evenly across the country. In the Northeast single family starts fell 7.2% (-38.5% y/y) to a record low. In the South, single family starts fell 6.6% (-42.9% y/y) to the lowest level since 1991 but in the West single family starts reversed the March decline. Starts rose 8.3% (-43.3% y/y) although they remained down by nearly two-thirds from the August 2005 peak. In the Midwest single family starts rose 5.0% (-40.1% y/y) and they were down 71.0% from the February 2005 peak.
Building permits reversed the March decline. The total rose 4.9% paced by a 4.0% (-40.1% y/y) increase in single-family permits.
Boom and Gloom in the Housing Markets: The Sequel from the Reserve Bank of St. Louis can be found here.
The Federal Response to Home Mortgage Distress: Lessons from the Great Depression, also from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, is available here.
| Housing Starts (000s, AR) | April | March | Y/Y | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 1,032 | 954 | -30.6% | 1,344 | 1,812 | 2,073 |
| Single-Family | 692 | 704 | -42.2% | 1,039 | 1,474 | 1,719 |
| Multi-Family | 340 | 250 | 17.6% | 304 | 338 | 354 |
| Building Permits | 978 | 932 | -34.3% | 1,371 | 1,842 | 2,159 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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