U.S. Gasoline Prices Decline; Crude Oil Nudges Higher

Gasoline prices at the pump declined last week to $2.06 per gallon, off 3 cents from the prior week. Prices were down 25.9% y/y and roughly equaled the January low of $2.04. Haver Analytics constructs factors adjusting for the seasonal variation in pump prices. The seasonally adjusted price declined to $2.19 per gallon. Moving the other way, the spot market gasoline price increased to $1.43 per gallon (-33.1% y/y).

WTI crude oil costs nudged up to $41.23 (-43.0% y/y). Prices reached $107.23 in June 2014. Yesterday, prices improved slightly to $41.65 per barrel. Brent crude oil prices increased w/w to $43.63 per barrel and were $43.73 yesterday.

Natural gas prices eased last week to $2.10 per mmbtu (-49.5% y/y) and were $2.09 yesterday.

Gasoline demand eased 0.2% y/y last week but demand for all petroleum products declined 1.8% y/y. Gasoline inventories increased 5.0% y/y and inventories of all petroleum products rose 10.4% y/y. Crude oil production (input to refineries) increased 1.5% y/y during the last four weeks.

The energy price data are reported by the U.S. Department of Energy. The petroleum demand and inventory figures are from the Oil & Gas Journal Weekly. These data can be found in Haver's WEEKLY database. The daily figures are in DAILY and greater detail on prices, demand and production, along with regional breakdowns, are in OILWKLY.

Weekly Energy Prices	11/30/15	11/23/15	11/16/15	Y/Y%	2014	2013	2012
Retail Gasoline ($ per Gallon, Regular)	2.06	2.09	2.18	-25.9	2.30	3.33	3.30
Light Sweet Crude Oil, WTI ($ per bbl., WSJ)	41.23	40.62	42.70	-43.0	93.64	97.96	94.20
Natural Gas ($/mmbtu, LA, WSJ)	2.10	2.12	2.07	-49.5	4.37	3.73	2.75

 

U.S. ISM Factory Index Falls to Lowest Level Since 2009
by Tom Moeller  December 1, 2015

Activity in the manufacturing sector declined last month according the Institute for Supply Management. Its Composite Index of factory sector activity fell to 48.6 during November from an unrevised October reading of 50.1. This was the lowest level since June 2009, the final month of the last recession. The decline compared to rough stability at 50.4 called for in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

Declines in most component series were evident. The new orders figure fell to 48.9, the lowest level since March 2009 while the production reading also moved below break-even to 49.2. These declines reflected an effort to reduce inventories as the index fell to 48.0, down sharply for the second straight month.

These declines didn't keep manufactures from raising employment. The jobs index rose to 51.3, its highest level since July. During the last ten years there has been an 88% percent correlation between the index and the m/m change in factory sector payrolls. The supplier delivery index also edged up to 50.6, indicating the slowest delivery speeds in three months.

Weaker activity readings led to reduced pricing power. The prices index fell to 35.5, is lowest level since April 2009. Thirty percent (NSA) of respondents reported paying lower prices while just 1% reported them higher.

The export order index held steady m/m at 47.5, but was down from the 2011 high of 62.5. The import index nudged up to 49.0 and the order backlog index gained to 43.0.    

The figures from the Institute For Supply Management (ISM) are diffusion indexes. A reading above 50 represents growth in factory sector activity. They can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations number is in the AS1REPNA database.

ISM Mfg (SA)	Nov	Oct	Sep	Nov '14	2014	2013	2012
Composite Index	48.6	50.1	50.2	57.6	55.7	53.8	51.7
New Orders	48.9	52.9	50.1	62.1	59.0	56.9	52.9
Production	49.2	52.9	51.8	62.6	59.2	57.5	53.7
Employment	51.3	47.6	50.5	54.6	54.5	53.2	53.8
Supplier Deliveries	50.6	50.4	50.2	57.0	55.0	51.9	50.0
Inventories	43.0	46.5	48.5	51.5	50.8	49.4	48.2
Prices Paid Index (NSA)	35.5	39.0	38.0	44.5	55.6	53.8	53.2

 

U.S. Construction Activity Continues to Strengthen
by Tom Moeller  December 1, 2015

The value of construction put-in-place increased 1.0% during October following an unrevised 0.6% September increase. Three-month growth of 10.4% (AR) was steady with Q3 but down sharply from 29.2% during Q2. A 0.5% October rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

Building activity in the private sector increased 0.8% following a 0.9% September gain. Activity increased at an 11.3% rate during the last three months. Residential building activity rose 1.0% (18.3% y/y), the seventh consecutive month of strong gain. The gain was led by a 1.6% increase in single-family building (11.3% y/y) which equaled the strongest rise of the year. Multi-family building rose 1.4% (27.2% y/y). Spending on improvements eased 0.3% (+21.5% y/y). Nonresidential building improved 0.6% (14.4% y/y) as factory sector construction rose 3.0% (37.6% y/y).

Public sector building increased 1.4% (5.6% y/y) following three months of little change. Water supply spending rose 2.5% (5.3% y/y) and office construction jumped 1.8% (7.2% y/y). Highway and street construction increased 1.1% (5.2% y/y) but power construction declined 5.2% (-8.7% y/y).

The construction spending figures are in Haver's USECON database and the expectations figure is contained in the AS1REPNA database.

Construction Put in Place (SA, %)	Oct	Sep	Aug	Oct Y/Y	2014	2013	2012
Total	1.0	0.6	0.9	11.7	4.8	6.6	9.2
Private	0.8	0.9	1.0	14.3	6.0	11.3	15.9
Residential	1.0	1.6	1.7	16.2	1.0	19.5	14.9
Nonresidential	0.6	0.2	0.2	12.4	11.3	3.6	16.9
Public	1.4	-0.1	0.7	5.6	1.9	-3.1	-2.5

 

U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Maintain 15-Year High; Imported Truck Sales Surge
by Tom Moeller  December 1, 2015

Total sales of light vehicles edged 0.4% higher during October to 18.24 million units (SAAR). The gain followed a total increase of 6.9% during the prior three months and left sales 10.0% higher than one year ago. Total unit sales were at the highest level since July 2005.

A 0.2% dip in light truck sales understates the dynamic behind last month's truck market -- a surge in imports and a decline in domestic sales. Imports' 1.9% gain to 1.62 million units was to a record high, with sales nearly 50% higher versus a year ago. The strength came at the expense of domestic truck sales which eased 3.0% but were still 14.8% higher than last year.

Passenger car sales increased 1.3% (0.4% y/y) after a 2.3% September rise. Sales were barely higher (0.4%) than one year ago. Imported car sales paced last month's increase with a 1.9% rise. The gain, however, did not make up September's loss and sales of imports remained 0.8% lower than last year. Sales of domestic passenger cars fared somewhat better and gained 1.0% after a 4.1% surge in the month prior. Here again, though, the y/y comparison is a less-than-inspiring 0.9%.

Imports share of the market for light vehicles rose m/m to 20.5%, still lower than a high of 30.7% in February 2009. Imports share of the light truck market jumped to 15.8%, its highest since March 2011. Imports share of the passenger car market was little changed m/m at 26.4%, remaining below the 34.8% peak during all of 2010.

U.S. vehicle sales figures are published by Autodata and can be found in Haver's USECON database.

 

Light Vehicle Sales (SAAR, Mil. Units)	Nov	Oct	Sep	Nov Y/Y %	2014	2013	2012
Total		18.24	18.17	10.0	16.52	15.59	14.49
Autos		8.01	7.91	0.4	7.92	7.77	7.42
Domestic		5.89	5.83	0.9	5.68	5.48	5.10
Imported		2.12	2.08	-0.8	2.24	2.30	2.32
Light Trucks		10.23	10.26	18.9	8.60	7.82	7.08
Domestic		8.61	8.88	14.8	7.51	6.74	6.10
Imported		1.62	1.37	46.7	1.09	1.08	0.97