Global| Jan 06 2016U.S. Factory Sector's New Orders Backpedal
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
New orders in the manufacturing sector fell 0.2% during November (-3.5% y/y) following a 1.3% October increase, revised from 1.5%. The decline compared to expectations for a 0.1% increase in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The [...]
New orders in the manufacturing sector fell 0.2% during November (-3.5% y/y) following a 1.3% October increase, revised from 1.5%. The decline compared to expectations for a 0.1% increase in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The shortfall reflected little change (+2.3% y/y) in durable goods orders which were unrevised from the advance report. The figure contained a 22.2% decline (-10.4% y/y) in nondefense aircraft & parts orders. Factory sector orders excluding the transportation altogether eased 0.3% (-5.7% y/y) following a 0.1% gain. Orders for nondurable goods (which equal shipments) fell 0.4% (-8.7% y/y), off for the fifth straight month. A 1.7% decline (-36.1% y/y) in shipments from petroleum refineries was the fifth consecutive drop as prices fell. Also dipping by 0.2% (-1.8% y/y) were food product shipments. Basic chemical shipments eased 0.2% (+1.1% y/y). Apparel shipments rebounded 1.1% but they were up negligibly versus last year. Durable goods shipments recovered 0.8% (3.2% y/y), led by a 0.9% increase (9.3% y/y) in computers.
Unfilled orders in the manufacturing sector increased 0.2% (-2.2% y/y). Transportation sector backlogs rose 0.2% (-2.4% y/y), despite a 0.4% fall (-1.8% y/y) in nondefense aircraft & parts. Outside of the transportation sector, backlogs improved 0.2% (-2.0% y/y). Electrical equipment backlogs fell 0.6% (-4.7% y/y), the eighth decline in as many months. Computer & electronic product backlogs gained 0.7% (5.7% y/y).
Factory sector inventories fell 0.3% (-2.3% y/y), about as they have during the last five months. Outside of the transportation sector, inventories were off 0.1% (-3.2% y/y), off for the fifth consecutive month. Primary metals inventories fell 1.2% (-10.4% y/y) and machinery inventories eased 0.1% (-1.4% y/y). Electrical equipment & appliance inventories declined 0.2% (-1.3% y/y) while computer & electronic product inventories fell 0.4% (+0.1% y/y).
The factory sector figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is available in AS1REPNA.
| Factory Sector- NAICS Classification (%) | Nov | Oct | Sep | Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders | -0.2 | 1.3 | -0.8 | -3.5 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 4.7 |
| Shipments | 0.2 | -0.7 | -0.3 | -3.1 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 4.7 |
| Unfilled Orders | 0.2 | 0.3 | -0.5 | -2.2 | 11.5 | 6.5 | 7.8 |
| Inventories | -0.3 | -0.2 | -0.5 | -2.3 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 3.8 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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