Global| Apr 02 2020U.S. Factory Orders, Shipments & Inventories Ease Ahead of Coronavirus
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Factory orders fell slightly (+0.1% y/y) during February following a 0.5% January decline. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 0.2% gain. Durable goods orders jumped 1.2% (-0.0% y/y) following a 0.1% improvement. Machinery [...]
Factory orders fell slightly (+0.1% y/y) during February following a 0.5% January decline. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 0.2% gain. Durable goods orders jumped 1.2% (-0.0% y/y) following a 0.1% improvement. Machinery orders eased 0.6% (-2.6% y/y) but electrical machinery orders jumped 1.3% (3.2% y/y). Orders for computers & electronic products fell 0.7% (-0.2% y/y). Orders for nondurable products, which equal shipments, declined 1.2% (+0.3% y/y) as the value of petroleum refinery shipments fell 4.1% (-2.8% y/y), down sharply for the second straight month due to lower prices. Basic chemical shipments fell 0.4% (+1.8% y/y) but apparel shipments declined 2.4% (-0.9% y/y).
Shipments of durable goods rose 0.9% (-2.4% y/y) as transportation shipments increased 2.9% (-5.2% y/y). Shipments outside of the transportation sector fell 0.8% (-0.2% y/y). Machinery shipments were off 1.3% (-3.4% y/y) while electrical equipment & appliance shipments improved 1.6% (2.7% y/y). Transportation sector shipments strengthened 2.9% (-5.2% y/y) as nondefense aircraft shipments rebounded 17.5%. They remained down by one third y/y. Shipments of computers & electronic products rose 0.3% (-0.6% y/y).
Unfilled orders for manufactured products improved 0.1% (-1.7% y/y) after holding steady for two consecutive months. Transportation sector backlogs rose 0.2% (-2.3% y/y). Excluding transportation, unfilled orders eased 0.2% (-0.6% y/y). Machinery backlogs rose 0.1% (-3.5% y/y) while computer & electronic equipment order backlogs fell 0.1% (+0.6% y/y). Electronic equipment & appliance order backlogs rose 0.2% (6.7% y/y).
Factory sector inventories declined 0.4% (+1.6% y/y). Transportation equipment inventories rose 0.4% (13.0% y/y) but auto inventories fell 2.8% (+6.9% y/y). Excluding the transportation sector, inventories fell 0.6% (-1.1% y/y). Electrical equipment inventories were off 0.2% (+1.1% y/y) while computer & electronic product inventories slipped 0.8% (+0.2% y/y). Nondurable product inventories fell 0.9% (-1.5% y/y) as the value of petroleum refinery stockpiles dropped 6.1% (-4.8% y/y). Apparel inventories eased 0.6% (-3.3% y/y) and food product inventories rose slightly (1.0% y/y).
The factory sector figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The expectation figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Factory Sector (% chg) - NAICS Classification | Feb | Jan | Dec | Feb Y/Y | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders | -0.0 | -0.5 | 1.9 | 0.1 | -0.5 | 7.3 | 5.7 |
| Shipments | -0.2 | -0.6 | 0.5 | -1.1 | 0.7 | 6.9 | 5.0 |
| Unfilled Orders | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -1.7 | -2.1 | 3.9 | 1.9 |
| Inventories | -0.4 | -0.3 | 0.4 | 1.6 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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