Global| Mar 23 2015U.S. Existing Home Sales Remain Under Pressure
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Sales of existing homes improved 1.2% during February to 4.880 million (AR, 4.7% y/y), following an unrevised 4.9% January decline. Home sales remained down 5.4% from October and slightly missed consensus expectations for 4.92 million [...]
Sales of existing homes improved 1.2% during February to 4.880 million (AR, 4.7% y/y), following an unrevised 4.9% January decline. Home sales remained down 5.4% from October and slightly missed consensus expectations for 4.92 million in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Single-family home sales gained 1.4% last month (5.9% y/y) to 4.340 million after a 4.9% shortfall. Condo and co-op sales remained unchanged (-3.6% y/y) at 0.540 million, the lowest level since July 2012.
The median sales price of an existing home increased 2.5% (7.5% y/y) to $202,600 from $197,600, revised from $199,600. Prices remained 8.7% lower than the June peak. The average sales price improved 1.0% (5.0% y/y) to $248,400, down 7.3% from the June peak. The composite index of home affordability increased 2.3% y/y to the highest level since May 2013.
Severe winter weather likely reduced sales last month. By region, sales in the Northeast declined 6.5% (+3.6% y/y) to 580,000, the lowest level in twelve months. Sales in the Midwest were unchanged (+4.9% y/y) at 1.080 million, down 10.7% from the high six months ago. Sales in the South improved 1.9% (6.0% y/y) to 2.110 million but remained slightly below their October peak. Sales in the West gained 5.7% (2.8% y/y) to 111,000, but have moved sideways for six months.
The inventory of unsold homes slipped 0.5% y/y. The months' supply of homes on the market remained unchanged at 4.6, down from 5.6 months in August and near the low for the economic expansion.
The data on existing home sales, prices and affordability can be found in Haver's USECON database. The regional price, affordability and inventory data are available in the REALTOR database. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics survey, reported in the AS1REPNA database.
| Existing Home Sales (SAAR, 000s) | Feb | Jan | Dec | Y/Y % | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 4,880 | 4,820 | 5,070 | 4.7 | 4,920 | 5,074 | 4,657 |
| Northeast | 580 | 620 | 670 | 3.6 | 640 | 658 | 597 |
| Midwest | 1,080 | 1,080 | 1,110 | 4.9 | 1,131 | 1,194 | 1,063 |
| South | 2,110 | 2,070 | 2,170 | 6.0 | 2,048 | 2,032 | 1,834 |
| West | 1,110 | 1,050 | 1,120 | 2.8 | 1,102 | 1,190 | 1,163 |
| Single-Family Sales | 4,340 | 4,280 | 4,500 | 5.9 | 4,334 | 4,473 | 4,125 |
| Median Price Total ($, NSA) | 202,600 | 197,600 | 208,200 | 7.5 | 206,708 | 195,667 | 175,433 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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