Global| Dec 19 2013U.S. Existing Home Sales Fall and Prices Weaken Further
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Sales of existing single-family homes fell 4.3% (-1.2% y/y) to 4.900 million (AR) during November from an unrevised 5.120 million in October. The decline from the August high totals 9.1%. November sales fell short of 5.050 million [...]
Sales of existing single-family homes fell 4.3% (-1.2% y/y) to 4.900 million (AR) during November from an unrevised 5.120 million in October. The decline from the August high totals 9.1%. November sales fell short of 5.050 million expected in the Action Economics survey. Sales of existing single family homes fell 3.5% to 4.320 million (-0.9% y/y).
The median sales price of an existing single-family home fell to $196,300 (+9.4% y/y), the fifth consecutive month of decline. Prices have fallen 8.3% since the June peak.
The composite index of home affordability fell 18.8% y/y as mortgage rates rose to 4.49% from 3.57% twelve months ago. Mortgage payments as a percent of income held m/m at 15.1%, up from 12.3% twelve months ago.
The inventory of unsold homes fell during the last four months but remained up 5.0% y/y. The months sales supply of unsold homes ticked higher m/m to 5.1 and remained up from 4.3 months in January. That remains lower, however, versus an 11.9 month supply in July of 2010.
The data on existing home sales, prices and affordability can be found in Haver's USECON database. The regional price, affordability and inventory data are available in the REALTOR database. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics survey, reported in the AS1REPNA database.
| Existing Home Sales (SAAR, 000s) | Nov | Oct | Sep | Y/Y % | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 4,900 | 5,120 | 5,290 | -1.2 | 4,661 | 4,278 | 4,183 |
| Northeast | 650 | 670 | 690 | 6.6 | 596 | 543 | 563 |
| Midwest | 1,170 | 1,220 | 1,240 | 0.0 | 1067 | 918 | 909 |
| South | 2,010 | 2,060 | 2,100 | 1.0 | 1,833 | 1,683 | 1,626 |
| West | 1,070 | 1,170 | 1,260 | -10.1 | 1,165 | 1,133 | 1,084 |
| Single-Family Sales | 4,320 | 4,490 | 4,680 | 0.9 | 4,130 | 3,793 | 3,705 |
| Median Price Total ($, NSA) | 196,300 | 197,500 | 198,500 | 9.4 | 175,442 | 164,542 | 172,442 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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