Global| Aug 24 2016U.S. Existing Home Sales and Prices Weaken Unexpectedly
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Sales of existing homes declined 3.2% (-1.6% y/y) during July to 5.390 million units (AR) after an unrevised June rise to 5.570 million. The decline erased the increases during the prior three months. Expectations had been for 5.53 [...]
Sales of existing homes declined 3.2% (-1.6% y/y) during July to 5.390 million units (AR) after an unrevised June rise to 5.570 million. The decline erased the increases during the prior three months. Expectations had been for 5.53 million sales in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Sales of existing single-family homes fell 2.0% last month (-0.8% y/y) to 4.820 million. Sales of condos & co-ops dropped 12.3% (-8.1% y/y) to 570,000, the lowest level since February. The figures are reported by the National Association of Realtors.
The median price of all previously owned homes eased 1.4% to $244,100 (+5.3% y/y) from $247,600. Annualized growth in prices has been roughly steady for the past two years, but falls short of the double-digit increases in 2013. The average price of an existing home declined 1.3% to $285,900 (+3.6% y/y).
Weakness in sales occurred in most regions of the country. Home sales in the Northeast sales declined 13.2% (-5.7% y/y) to 660,000 units, the lowest level since February. Midwest home sales of 1.280 million were off 5.2% and were unchanged y/y. Home sales in the South declined 1.8% to 2.220 million, the lowest level in three months. To the upside were sales in the West. The 2.5% increase to 1.230 million (-0.8% y/y) left them at the highest level since September.
The number of existing homes on the market declined 5.8% y/y to 2.130 million. The months' sales supply of homes eased to 4.7, about where it's been for three years.
The data on existing home sales, prices and affordability can be found in Haver's USECON database. The regional price, affordability and inventory data are available in the REALTOR database. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, reported in the AS1REPNA database.
| Existing Home Sales (SAAR, 000s) | Jul | Jun | May | Y/Y % | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 5,390 | 5,570 | 5,510 | -1.6 | 5,254 | 4,935 | 5,087 |
| Northeast | 660 | 760 | 770 | -5.7 | 691 | 645 | 658 |
| Midwest | 1,280 | 1,350 | 1,300 | 0.0 | 1,240 | 1,136 | 1,201 |
| South | 2,220 | 2,260 | 2,260 | -1.8 | 2,151 | 2,051 | 2,040 |
| West | 1,230 | 1,200 | 1,180 | -0.8 | 1,172 | 1,103 | 1,188 |
| Single-Family | 4,820 | 4,920 | 4,880 | -0.8 | 4,626 | 4,344 | 4,484 |
| Median Price Total ($, NSA) | 244,100 | 247,600 | 238,900 | 5.3 | 219,867 | 206,708 | 195,667 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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