GlobalFilling up at the gas pump has become less of a traumatic event. The price for a gallon of regular gasoline fell 8 cents last week to $3.19 (-7.4% y/y), the lowest level since February 2011. They're down from the $3.78 per gallon peak reached late in February. Much of the decline reflects less driving this time of year. Haver Analytics constructs seasonal factors to account for this seasonal volatility. The adjusted price of $3.36 per gallon remained below the February peak of $3.94.
Also continuing downward have been light sweet crude oil prices. The per barrel cost of WTI crude fell to $94.32 (12.9% y/y) last week, down from $108.77 two months ago. Yesterday, prices continued lower to $93.04. Brent crude oil prices also fell last week to $104.67 per barrel (-3.9% y/y) and they remained down from the February high of $118.09. Yesterday, prices ticked higher to $105.64 per barrel.
Natural gas prices also have been under pressure. They declined last week to $3.46 per mmbtu (+2.1% y/y). Yesterday, prices moved higher to $3.69 but remained down from the April peak of $4.26.
The demand for all petroleum products rose 3.0% y/y. Gasoline demand gained 5.4% y/y last week. Residual fuel oil needs, used for heating, fell by 29.8% y/y but distillate demand gained 8.2% y/y. Inventories of crude oil and petroleum products increased 1.1% y/y.
The energy price data are reported by the U.S. Department of Energy and can be found in Haver's WEEKLY database. The daily figures are in DAILY and the gasoline demand and inventory figures are in OILWKLY.
| Weekly Energy Prices | 11/11/13 | 11/04/13 | 10/28/13 | Y/Y% | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Gasoline ($ per Gallon, Regular) | 3.19 | 3.27 | 3.29 | -7.4 | 3.62 | 3.52 | 2.78 |
| Light Sweet Crude Oil, WTI ($ per bbl.) | 94.32 | 96.95 | 97.66 | 9.7 | 94.20 | 95.14 | 79.51 |
| Natural Gas ($/mmbtu, LA) | 3.46 | 3.56 | 3.68 | 2.1 | 2.75 | 3.99 | 4.00 |
by Tom Moeller November 13, 2013
The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that their total mortgage market index fell 1.8% last week (-46.6% y/y). Applications to refinance existing loans were off 2.3% and remained down by roughly one-half versus November 2012. Home purchase mortgage applications slipped 0.5% last week (-6.9% y/y) and were 17.4% below the early-May peak.
The effective interest rate on a 15-year mortgage edged up to 3.59%. It was up versus the early-May low of 2.89%. The effective rate on a 30-year fixed rate loan nudged higher to 4.57% last week while the rate on a Jumbo 30-year loan was 4.58%. The effective interest rate on an adjustable 5-year mortgage rose w/w to 3.21% and remained up from its low of 2.59% at the beginning of May.
Applications for fixed interest rate loans fell by 48.5% y/y while adjustable rate loan applications increased 2.0% y/y. The average mortgage loan size was $226,200. The average size loan for home purchases was $264,600 last week while for refinancings it was $206,600.
The survey covers over 75 percent of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications, and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver's SURVEYW database.
| MBA Mortgage Applications (SA, 3/16/90=100) | 11/08/13 | 11/01/13 | 10/25/13 | Y/Y% | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Market Index | 461.7 | 470.0 | 483.7 | -46.6 | 813.8 | 572.3 | 659.3 |
| Purchase | 182.2 | 183.2 | 184.5 | -6.9 | 187.8 | 182.6 | 199.8 |
| Refinancing | 2,076 | 2,125.1 | 2,211.3 | -56.8 | 4,505.0 | 2,858.4 | 3,348.1 |
| 15-Year Mortgage Effective Interest Rate (%) | 3.59 | 3.52 | 3.50 | 2.98 (11/12) |
3.25 | 3.97 | 4.39 |
U.S. Budget Deficit Shrinks; Revenues Jump and
Spending Falls
by Tom
Moeller November 13, 2013
The Federal Government ran a $91.6 billion
budget deficit during October of FY 2014. During October of last year the
government ran a $120.0 billion deficit. The latest figure compared to the
Action Economics Forecast Survey expectation of a $104.2 billion shortfall.
The shrinking budget deficit continues the improvement which was notable
last year. The FY 2013 deficit of $680.3 billion was down sharply from
$1,089 billion in FY 2012 and the $1,416 billion peak in FY 2009.
Driving the improvement in October's budget balance was a
7.9% y/y rise in revenues. That reflected a three-fold surge in corporate
tax payments as well as a 20.5% y/y rise in social insurance tax payments,
the result of higher employment and the expiration of the social security
tax cut. Individual income tax payments fell slightly following a surge
earlier this year. For FY 2013, personal revenues rose 13.3% y/y. The
improved labor market raised income taxes 16.3% from FY'12. Corporate
taxes also jumped due to improved profits while social insurance taxes
gained 12.1% y/y with higher payrolls. On the spending side, sequestration and the government
shutdown helped net outlays fall 4.5% y/y, following declines of 2.4% y/y
and 1.7% y/y during the prior two fiscal years. Declines in defense
outlays occurred with the winding down of the war in Afghanistan. Medicare
outlays also were off 2.4% y/y during the last twelve months. Income
security payments fell 5.1% y/y and have been down since late-2010 with
the improved job market. Interest payments likewise fell a sharp 18.1% y/y
with the deficit's decline. To the upside, health program outlays
increased 6.8% y/y after a 3.1% gain last fiscal year. Social security
outlays gained 5.1% y/y after a like rise in FY 2013. Veterans benefits
rose 6.7% y/y after an 11.5% rise last fiscal year. Haver's basic data on Federal Government outlays and receipts, and
summary presentations of the Budget from both OMB and CBO are contained in
USECON. Considerable detail is given in the separate GOVFIN
database.
US Government
Finance
Oct
FY'13
FY'12
FY'11
FY'10
Budget Balance
--
$91.6B
$-680.3B
$-1,089B
$-1,298.7B
$-1,294.2B
As a percent of GDP
--
--
4.1
6.8
8.4
8.8
% of Total
YTD FY'14
Net Revenues (Y/Y % Change)
100
7.9%
13.3%
6.4%
6.5%
2.7%
Individual Income Taxes
47
-2.9
16.3
3.7
21.5
-1.8
Corporate Income Taxes
10
400
12.9
33.8
-5.4
38.5
Social Insurance Taxes
34
20.5
12.1
3.2
-5.3
-2.9
Excise Taxes
3
-12.2
6.3
9.2
8.2
7.1
Net Outlays (Y/Y % Change)
100
-4.5
-2.4
-1.7
4.1
-1.8
National Defense
18
-8.3
-6.3
-3.9
1.7
4.6
Health
10
6.8
3.1
-7.0
1.0
10.4
Medicare
14
-2.4
5.5
-2.8
7.5
5.0
Income Security
16
-5.1
-1.1
-9.1
-4.1
16.7
Social Security
24
5.1
5.2
5.8
3.4
3.5
Veterans Benefits
4
6.7
11.5
-2.0
17.3
13.6
Interest
6
-18.1
0.4
-3.0
15.8
2.9
