Global| Mar 26 2013U.S. Durable Goods Orders Recover
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Total durable goods orders during February rebounded 5.7% (3.8% y/y) following a 3.8% January decline, revised from -5.2%. A 3.7% rise had been expected. Last month's recovery was led by a 21.7% rebound (9.4% y/y) in transportation [...]
Total durable goods orders during February rebounded 5.7% (3.8% y/y) following a 3.8% January decline, revised from -5.2%. A 3.7% rise had been expected. Last month's recovery was led by a 21.7% rebound (9.4% y/y) in transportation sector orders. That was paced by a three-quarters jump (-1.0% y/y) in aircraft & parts reflecting a near-doubling (10.0% y/y) in the nondefense sector. Orders for motor vehicles & parts rose a strong 3.8% (12.7% y/y).
Outside of the transportation sector, there still was life in orders. Electrical equipment bookings jumped 2.9% (3.3% y/y) while orders for computers and electronic products rose 1.3% (-9.2% y/y). Primary metals orders gained 1.7% (3.7% y/y). Moving lower were machinery orders, down by 2.2% (+3.7% y/y). Continuing to show strength were orders for nondefense capital goods. The 10.0% (1.2% y/y) m/m rise, however, was limited to the jump in aircraft. Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft fell 2.7% (-1.1%) after a 6.7% January jump.
Shipments of durable goods recovered 1.0% (4.7% y/y) last month and reached a record high level for the series. The strength, however, reflected the rise in the transportation sector where shipments rose 1.6% (9.2% y/y) last month. Outside of the transportation sector, shipments ticked up 0.7% (3.0% y/y) last month. The rise here was paced by a 10.4% y/y gain in the machinery sector.
Unfilled orders for durable goods improved 0.9% (1.4% y/y) in February. Outside of the transportation sector there was, however, no y/y strength as they fell 2.3% versus 2012. Inventories of durable goods gained 0.4% (4.2% y/y) last month. Excluding transportation, inventories again slipped 0.1% (+1.4% y/y), down for the fourth straight month.
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
Monetary Policy and the Global Economy is the title of yesterday's speech by Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and it can be found here.
| Durable Goods NAICS Classification | Feb | Jan | Dec | Y/Y | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders | 5.7 | -3.8 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 9.8 | 27.1 |
| Transportation | 21.7 | -17.8 | 9.9 | 9.4 | 7.8 | 12.8 | 57.4 |
| Total Excluding Transportation | -0.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 8.6 | 18.0 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | 10.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 13.2 | 36.3 |
| Excluding Aircraft | -2.7 | 6.7 | -0.8 | -1.1 | -0.5 | 10.3 | 17.1 |
| Shipments | 1.0 | -0.7 | 0.6 | 4.7 | 6.6 | 9.6 | 11.4 |
| Inventories | 0.4 | 0.3 | -0.1 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 10.3 | 9.5 |
| Unfilled Orders | 0.9 | -0.1 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 10.3 | 9.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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