Global| Jan 28 2013U.S. Durable Goods Orders Jump at Yearend; Shipments Reach Record High
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
A doubling of defense bookings raised total durable goods orders by 4.6% (0.2% y/y) during December, a 0.7% rise had been expected. Outside of the defense sector, orders rose 1.2% (-4.5% y/y) last month but the 4.1% full-year gain was [...]
A doubling of defense bookings raised total durable goods orders by 4.6% (0.2% y/y) during December, a 0.7% rise had been expected. Outside of the defense sector, orders rose 1.2% (-4.5% y/y) last month but the 4.1% full-year gain was slower than a 12.3% advance during all of 2011. Orders for primary metals led last month's total increase with a 3.6% (-7.0% y/y) rise. Orders for computers & electronic products jumped 3.3% (1.2% y/y) in December but for the full year slipped 0.2% after having been down 8.0% during all of 2011. Orders for electrical equipment & appliances fell 2.4% (-4.1% y/y) last month and slipped 0.9% for the full year. Orders for nondefense capital goods jumped 3.8% (-12.3% y/y) in December; excluding commercial aircraft, nondefense orders ticked up just 0.2% (-4.3% y/y) and for the full year fell 0.5%.
Shipments of durable goods jumped 1.3% (4.8% y/y) last month to a record high level. Growth, however, slowed through most of the year. The 1.2% rise (4.9% y/y) outside of defense pulled shipments up 7.2% for 2012. That rate of gain, however, was down from an 11.4% advance in 2011. The full-year rise was led by an 8.7% rise in machinery shipments.
Unfilled orders rose 0.8% (2.3% y/y) in December and 2.3% y/y. Inventories of durable goods were roughly unchanged last month but the 4.6% rise during all of 2012 was half the 2011 gain. A slower rate of inventory accumulation last year occurred throughout most industry sectors.
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Durable Goods NAICS Classification | Dec | Nov | Oct | Y/Y | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders | 4.6 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 3.8 | 9.8 | 27.1 |
| Transportation | 11.9 | -0.5 | -0.6 | 6.7 | 8.1 | 12.8 | 57.4 |
| Total Excluding Transportation | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.8 | -2.8 | 2.0 | 8.6 | 18.0 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | 3.8 | -2.4 | 2.6 | -12.3 | 0.6 | 13.2 | 36.3 |
| Excluding Aircraft | 0.2 | 3.0 | 3.0 | -4.3 | -0.5 | 10.3 | 17.1 |
| Shipments | 1.3 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 4.8 | 6.7 | 9.6 | 11.4 |
| Inventories | -0.0 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 10.3 | 9.5 |
| Unfilled Orders | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 10.3 | 9.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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