Global| Mar 25 2015U.S. Durable Goods Orders Decline is Broad-Based
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
New orders for durable goods fell 1.4% during February (+0.6% y/y) following a 2.0% January increase, initially estimated as 2.8%. An 8.9% decline (-22.4 y/y) in nondefense aircraft & parts bookings led total orders downward. Total [...]
New orders for durable goods fell 1.4% during February (+0.6% y/y) following a 2.0% January increase, initially estimated as 2.8%. An 8.9% decline (-22.4 y/y) in nondefense aircraft & parts bookings led total orders downward. Total durable goods orders were expected to rise 0.3% in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the last ten years, there has been an 88% correlation between the y/y change in orders and the change in real GDP.
Outside of the transportation sector, new orders were off 0.4% (+2.3 y/y), falling 4.4% since a September peak. Machinery orders declined 1.8% (-5.2% y/y), down 10.5% since a June peak. Orders for computers & electronic products slipped 0.1% (+5.8% y/y), off 2.9% since an August high. Fabricated metal orders declined 2.0% (+3.0% y/y) for the second straight month. These declines were offset by a 4.1% rebound (4.4% y/y) in orders for electrical equipment & appliances which came after a 5.1% drop. Orders are 5.2% lower than the September high. A 1.0% recovery (0.8% y/y) in primary metals orders left them, nevertheless, 6.8% below the September peak.
Nondefense capital goods orders declined 2.6% (+2.1% y/y) following an 8.8% rise. Orders excluding the notably volatile aircraft sector fell 1.4% and were 5.3% below the August peak.
Shipments of durable goods slipped 0.2% (+3.9% y/y) following a 1.4% decline. Shipments excluding transportation edged 0.1% lower (+2.8% y/y) after a 1.5% drop. Unfilled orders were off 0.5% (+8.9% y/y) following a 0.3% decline. Backlogs less the transportation sector fell 0.2% (+5.4 y/y) for the second straight month. Inventories of durable goods gained 0.3% (5.3% y/y) for the second consecutive month but excluding transportation they were fairly steady (+3.9% y/y).
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
Monetary Policy Lessons and the Way Ahead is from Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer and it can be found here.
| Durable Goods NAICS Classification | Feb | Jan | Dec | Feb Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders (SA, %) | -1.4 | 2.0 | -3.7 | 0.6 | 6.1 | 5.2 | 4.1 |
| Transportation | -3.5 | 8.8 | -10.0 | -3.0 | 8.4 | 7.9 | 8.9 |
| Total Excluding Transportation | -0.4 | -0.7 | -0.8 | 2.3 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 2.1 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | -2.6 | 8.8 | -10.1 | 2.1 | 6.1 | 8.7 | 3.7 |
| Excluding Aircraft | -1.4 | -0.1 | -0.5 | 2.1 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 2.1 |
| Shipments | -0.2 | -1.4 | 1.5 | 3.9 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 6.4 |
| Inventories | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 5.3 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 4.5 |
| Unfilled Orders | -0.5 | -0.3 | -0.9 | 8.9 | 9.9 | 7.0 | 3.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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