Global| Nov 26 2014U.S. Durable Goods Orders Boosted by Defense Aircraft
Summary
New orders for durable goods rose 0.4% during October (+5.5% y/y) following a 0.9% fall in September, revised from -1.3%. The October increase countered expectations for a 0.6% decline in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The [...]
New orders for durable goods rose 0.4% during October (+5.5% y/y) following a 0.9% fall in September, revised from -1.3%. The October increase countered expectations for a 0.6% decline in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The defense aircraft sector was responsible for much of the gain, as those orders rose 45.3% (+26.5% y/y).
Overall transportation sector orders were up 3.3% (3.6% y/y); total durable goods orders excluding transportation were down 0.9% (+6.4% y/y) after a 0.2% rise in September. Among transportation equipment industries other than defense aircraft, motor vehicles and parts showed a 0.3% gain (+2.9% y/y), reversing a 0.3% September decline. Nondefense aircraft orders edged lower 0.1% (-9.4% y/y), following their 16% drop in September.
Orders in other sectors were mostly down last month. Primary metals orders fell 2.4% (8.9% y/y), almost exactly reversing their September 2.5% rise (+5.1% y/y). Fabricated metal products eased 0.2% (+8.8% y/y) in October following a 1.0% gain. Electrical equipment orders were down 3.1% (+3.1% y/y) after their 3.1% September rise. And computer orders fell 3.4% (7.1% y/y) after a 1.9% decline. In contrast, communications equipment orders rebounded 8.9% following their September drop of 17.2%; the October amount is still 7.3% below October 2013.
Durable goods shipments increased 0.1% (5.6% y/y) after a slightly revised 0.3% rise in September. Excluding transportation equipment, shipments dipped 0.1% (+6.6% y/y) after a 0.3% increase. Total order backlogs rose 0.4% (+12.3% y/y) in October, the same as in the month before. Excluding the transportation sector, backlogs were also up 0.4% (+6.9% y/y) after 0.7% in September. Durable goods inventories rose 0.5% (+6.0% y/y), the same as a slightly revised September increase. Excluding the transportation sector, inventories were up 0.4% (4.4% y/y) for a third consecutive month.
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Durable Goods NAICS Classification | Oct | Sep | Aug | Y/Y | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders (SA, %) | 0.4 | -0.9 | -18.3 | 5.5 | 5.2 | 4.1 | 11.0 |
| Transportation | 3.4 | -3.3 | -42.4 | 3.6 | 7.9 | 8.9 | 14.9 |
| Total Excluding Transportation | -0.9 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 9.5 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | -0.1 | -5.1 | -36.4 | 5.1 | 8.7 | 3.7 | 15.3 |
| Excluding Aircraft | -1.3 | -1.3 | 0.4 | 8.2 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 11.6 |
| Shipments | 0.1 | 0.3 | -1.7 | 5.6 | 3.7 | 6.4 | 9.4 |
| Inventories | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 6.0 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 10.8 |
| Unfilled Orders | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 12.3 | 7.0 | 3.6 | 10.0 |
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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