Global| Dec 17 2015U.S. Current Account Deficit Deepens
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The U.S. Current Account Deficit increased to $124.1 billion in Q3 from $111.1 billion in Q2, and was the largest deficit since Q4'08. The data are seasonally adjusted. The deficit in goods trade was fairly steady Q/Q but the services [...]
The U.S. Current Account Deficit increased to $124.1 billion in Q3 from $111.1 billion in Q2, and was the largest deficit since Q4'08. The data are seasonally adjusted. The deficit in goods trade was fairly steady Q/Q but the services surplus held near the lowest level in two years. The surplus on primary income declined to the smallest in five years, but the deficit on secondary income deepened to roughly the greatest level since Q1'08. The current account deficit reading was deeper than the deficit of $119.8 billion expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
The deficit on goods trade of $190.0 billion in Q3 was fairly steady Q/Q, but has grown from $169.6 billion in Q4'13. Exports declined 1.2% (-8.0% y/y) to nearly the lowest level in four years while imports eased 0.7% (-4.4% y/y). The deficit was little-changed from a year ago.
The surplus on services trade held fairly steady Q/Q at $56.3 billion from a downwardly revised $56.1 billion in Q1. It was smaller, however, than the $59.4 billion peak in Q2 of last year. Exports of services gained 0.8% (1.6% y/y), while imports of services increased 1.1% (3.2% y/y).
The surplus on primary income lessened to $46.1 billion in Q3, down from its peak of $61.7 billion one year ago.
Direct investment income declined 13.4% y/y while the surplus on portfolio income fell to its lowest level since Q1'14.
Balance of Payments data are in Haver's USINT database, with summaries available in USECON. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| US Balance of Payments SA* | Q3'15 | Q2'15 | Q1'15 | Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Account Balance ($ Billion) | -124.1 | -111.1 | -118.3 | -97.9 | -389.5 | -376.8 | -449.7 |
| Deficit % of GDP | -2.8 | -2.5 | -2.7 | -2.1 | -2.2 | -2.2 | -2.8 |
| Balance on Goods ($ Billion) | -190.0 | -189.2 | -192.2 | -188.1 | -741.5 | -702.6 | -741.1 |
| Exports | -1.2% | 0.5% | -6.4% | -8.0% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 4.2% |
| Imports | -0.7% | -0.2% | -3.4% | -4.4% | 3.5% | -0.4% | 2.9% |
| Balance on Services ($ Billion) | 56.3 | 56.1 | 57.9 | 59.4 | 233.1 | 224.2 | 204.4 |
| Exports | 0.8% | -0.6% | -0.5% | 1.6% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 4.6% |
| Imports | 1.1% | 0.5% | -1.0% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.7% |
| Balance on Primary Income ($ Billion) | 46.1 | 52.8 | 49.7 | 61.7 | 238.0 | 224.5 | 212.2 |
| Balance on Secondary Income ($ Billion) | -36.6 | -30.8 | -33.8 | -33.8 | -119.2 | -122.9 | -125.1 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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