Global| Apr 16 2008U.S. CPI Total Rose An Expected 0.3%
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
During March, the consumer price index (CPI-U) rose an expected 0.3% after having been unchanged in February. Less food & energy, consumer prices rose 0.2% and that also was as expected. A Comparison of Measures of Core Inflation from [...]
During March, the consumer price index (CPI-U) rose an expected 0.3% after having been unchanged in February. Less food & energy, consumer prices rose 0.2% and that also was as expected. A Comparison of Measures of Core Inflation from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York can be found here.
Energy prices were quite firm last month and they rose 1.9% overall, the strongest increase since last November. Fuel oil prices led the strength with a 7.9% (40.2% y/y) rise while natural gas & electricity prices also were strong. They rose 1.9% (4.1% y/y). Gasoline prices increased 1.3% (26.0% y/y) and in April already have increased another 3.6%.
Inflation of food & beverage prices remained moderate at 0.2% due to continued softness in prices for meats poultry & fish which were unchanged m/m (3.7% y/y). That followed a slight decline in February. Conversely, prices for cereal & bakery products remained strong and rose 1.3% (8.1% y/y). Earlier strength in dairy products took a breather m/m and they fell 0.8% (+11.0% y/y).
Core goods prices posted the second consecutive 0.1% m/m decline. Apparel prices fell 1.3% (-1.3% y/y) but prices for household furnishings & operations rose 0.5% (-0.2% y/y). March prices for new & used motor vehicles fell 0.1% (-0.0% y/y).
Core services prices increased 0.2% as shelter prices, which constitute 33% of the total CPI, rose just 0.1% (2.9% y/y) after having been unchanged in February. Owners equivalent rent of primary residence, a measure not equivalent to other house price measures, rose 0.2% (2.6% y/y). Medical care services prices ticked up 0.1% (4.8% y/y) for the second straight month. Tuition costs rose 0.4% and the annual rate of gain has been fairly stable at 5.5% y/y. Another source of price strength, however, has been for public transportation where prices surged 2.5% (7.5% y/y).
Stable Prices, Stable Economy: Keeping Inflation in Check Must be No. 1 Goal of Monetary Policymakers from the Federal Reserve bank of St. Louis is available here.
| Consumer Price Index (%) | March | February | January | March Y/Y | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 3.4 |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.2 |
| Goods less Food & Energy | -0.1 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.5 |
| Services less Energy | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 2.8 |
| Energy | 1.9 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 17.0 | 5.6 | 11.0 | 17.0 |
| Food & Beverages | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 2.5 |
| Chained CPI: Total (NSA) | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 2.9 |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.9 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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