Global| Apr 01 2013U.S. Consumer Sentiment Improves Sharply in Late-March
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment for March improved for the full month to 78.6 (3.1% y/y) from its mid-month reading of 71.8. The figure was up versus 77.6 in February and compared to the consensus forecast for [...]
The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment for March improved for the full month to 78.6 (3.1% y/y) from its mid-month reading of 71.8. The figure was up versus 77.6 in February and compared to the consensus forecast for a decline 72.6. It remained down, however, versus the November high of 82.7. During the last ten years, there has been a 61% correlation between the level of sentiment and the three-month change in real personal consumption expenditures.
Last month's sentiment figure reflected improvement in the consumer expectations reading to 70.8 (+1.4%) which was up slightly m/m but up sharply from the mid-month figure of 61.7. The present situations reading also rose m/m to 90.7 (5.5% y/y) and compared to the mid-March reading of 87.5.
The Reuters/University of Michigan survey data are not seasonally adjusted. The readings are based on telephone interviews with over 300 households. Data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is from Action Economics and can be found in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
| University of Michigan (Q1'66 = 100) | Mar | Feb | Jan | Mar '12 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Sentiment | 78.6 | 77.6 | 73.8 | 76.2 | 76.5 | 67.3 | 71.8 |
| Current Economic Conditions | 90.7 | 89.0 | 85.0 | 86.0 | 85.6 | 79.1 | 80.9 |
| Consumer Expectations | 70.8 | 70.2 | 66.6 | 69.8 | 70.7 | 59.8 | 66.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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