Global| Aug 31 2010U.S. Case-Shiller Home Price Index Gains Slow
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Earlier, modest improvement in home prices recently lost some steam. Seasonally adjusted, the Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index gained 0.3% (4.2% y/y) in June following slightly stronger increases during the prior two months. [...]
Earlier, modest improvement in home prices recently lost some steam. Seasonally adjusted, the Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index gained 0.3% (4.2% y/y) in June following slightly stronger increases during the prior two months. Consensus expectations had been for a 3.5% y/y increase. Further, quarterly diminution in coming months is possible due to the expiration of the government's $8,000 home-buyer Federal tax credit. Nevertheless, prices were 5.0% higher than during the May 2009 low. For the narrower 10 City Composite Home Price Index, June prices rose a seasonally adjusted 0.3% (5.0% y/y).
The performance of home prices continued to vary around the country. During June the 12-month gain in prices was strongest in the West. In San Francisco prices rose 14.3% y/y, in San Diego by 11.2%. Also, prices rose a sharp 10.7% in Minneapolis. Prices were up less in Los Angeles (9.2%), Washington D.C. (7.3%), and Phoenix (6.0%). Prices also rose by 3.3% in Boston but quarterly gains have decelerated as they have elsewhere around the country. In Denver (1.7%) and Dallas (1.1%) price gains already have decelerated sharply from last year. Price increases were registered in Miami (1.1%), Detroit (0.8% y/y) and New York (0.2%) following earlier sharp declines. Widespread, though reduced, price declines continued in Charlotte (-2.8%), Seattle (-1.8%) and Tampa (-1.6%).
The Case-Shiller home price series are value-weighted, i.e., a greater index weight is assigned to more expensive homes. The S&P/Case-Shiller home price series can be found in Haver's USECON database and the city data highlighted below is in the REGIONAL database.
American Dream or American Obsession? The Economic Benefits and Costs of Homeownership from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia is available here.
| S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (SA) | June M/M | May M/M | April M/M | June Y/Y | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 City Composite Index | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 4.2% | -13.3% | -15.7% | -3.8% |
| Regional Indicators | |||||||
| Atlanta | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.9 | -11.6 | -8.5 | 0.7 |
| Boston | -0.1 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 3.3 | -4.9 | -5.7 | -4.0 |
| Chicago | 1.2 | 0.4 | 1.1 | -0.1 | -14.2 | -10.0 | -1.0 |
| Charlotte | -0.2 | -0.8 | 0.6 | -2.8 | -8.2 | -1.9 | 5.7 |
| Dallas | -0.0 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 1.1 | -2.3 | -3.3 | 0.5 |
| Denver | -1.0 | -0.3 | 0.6 | 1.7 | -2.8 | -4.9 | -1.7 |
| Los Angeles | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 9.2 | -15.4 | -24.2 | -5.2 |
| Miami | 0.3 | 0.6 | -0.2 | 1.1 | -22.0 | -26.6 | -5.9 |
| Minneapolis | 1.0 | 1.2 | 2.7 | 10.7 | -15.7 | -14.3 | -3.7 |
| New York | 0.7 | 0.7 | -0.1 | 0.2 | -9.8 | -7.4 | -2.8 |
| San Francisco | -0.6 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 14.3 | -18.4 | -24.3 | -4.5 |
| Tampa | -0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | -1.6 | -18.8 | -19.2 | -7.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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