Global| Jan 31 2012U.S. Case-Shiller Home Price Index Declines Sharply
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
House price weakness intensified during November. The seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index dropped 1.3% after a like decline in October, initially reported as -0.6%. Among the 20 cities, only three, Phoenix, [...]
House price weakness intensified during November. The seasonally
adjusted Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index dropped 1.3% after a like
decline in October, initially reported as -0.6%. Among the 20 cities, only
three, Phoenix, Denver and Minneapolis saw prices increase during the
month. For the year-to-year comparison, the total is off an accelerated 3.7%,
with all but Washington and Detroit sharing in the decline. The index
level for November was 137.52 (Jan 2000 = 100); the peak was 206.66 in
April 2006, and the last time the index was at the current level was March
2003. Not seasonally adjusted prices were off 1.3% in November. The
narrower 10 City Composite Home Price Index was off 0.7% seasonally
adjusted, and down 3.7% from the year ago.
While price declines were spread throughout the U.S., most cities are at least seeing lesser declines in the most recent 12-month comparisons. These include Denver, (-0.2% y/y), Cleveland (-1.1% y/y) and Minneapolis (-5.0% y/y). The main areas still experiencing worsening price situations include Atlanta (-11.7% y/y) and Las Vegas (-9.2% y/y).
The Case-Shiller home price series is value-weighted, i.e., a greater index weight is assigned to more expensive homes. It is calculated using the "repeat sales method," where the item measured is the price change for a specific house compared to the price for that same house the last time it sold. In October, the national 20-city index covered 74,835 so-called "sale pairs". The nation-wide S&P/Case-Shiller home price indexes and sale pair counts can be found in Haver's USECON database, and the city data highlighted below are in the REGIONAL database.
| S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (SA, %) | Nov | Oct | Sep | Nov Y/Y |
2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 City Composite Index | -1.3 | -1.3 | -0.6 | -3.7% | 1.2 | -13.3 | -15.7 |
| Regional Indicators | |||||||
| Atlanta | -1.2 | -3.6 | -5.3 | -11.7 | -2.4 | -11.6 | -8.5 |
| Boston | -0.5 | -0.3 | -0.2 | -1.6 | 1.9 | -4.9 | -5.7 |
| Chicago | -2.1 | -1.4 | -1.5 | -5.9 | -3.7 | -14.2 | -10.0 |
| Charlotte | -0.1 | -0.3 | 0.0 | -2.0 | -3.4 | -8.2 | -1.9 |
| Cleveland | -0.2 | -0.2 | 0.0 | -1.1 | 0.7 | -4.8 | -7.3 |
| Dallas | -0.4 | -0.1 | 0.3 | -0.8 | 0.1 | -2.3 | -3.2 |
| Denver | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | -0.2 | 0.9 | -2.8 | -4.9 |
| Detroit | -1.3 | -1.2 | 0.3 | 3.8 | -3.4 | -21.3 | -17.9 |
| Las Vegas | -0.9 | -1.9 | -1.7 | -9.2 | -7.7 | -29.8 | -28.1 |
| Los Angeles | -0.9 | -1.0 | -1.0 | -5.4 | 5.3 | -15.4 | -24.2 |
| Miami | -0.8 | -1.0 | -0.5 | -4.4 | -2.1 | -22.0 | -26.5 |
| Minneapolis | 0.1 | -0.7 | -0.5 | -5.0 | 3.2 | -15.7 | -14.3 |
| New York | -0.5 | -1.4 | 0.2 | -2.3 | -1.5 | -9.8 | -7.4 |
| Phoenix | 0.6 | 0.0 | -0.3 | -3.6 | -0.3 | -28.0 | -27.5 |
| Portland | -1.1 | -0.3 | 0.7 | -4.8 | -3.2 | -12.8 | -6.6 |
| San Diego | -0.4 | -0.0 | -0.4 | -5.4 | 7.3 | -13.3 | -23.3 |
| San Francisco | -1.3 | -0.1 | -0.9 | -5.5 | 9.3 | -18.4 | -24.3 |
| Seattle | -0.7 | -1.0 | -0.9 | -6.3 | -3.6 | -14.3 | -7.3 |
| Tampa | -0.7 | 0.1 | -1.9 | -6.1 | -4.0 | -18.8 | -19.2 |
| Washington, D.C. | -0.2 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 4.7 | -10.8 | -15.7 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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