Global| Jun 15 2005U.S. Business Inventory Accumulation Slowing
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Total business inventories rose just 0.3% in April, the weakest monthly increase this year. The gain lowered the three month change in inventories to 5.5% (AR), less than half the 12.1% peak rate of accumulation through last August. [...]
Total business inventories rose just 0.3% in April, the weakest monthly increase this year. The gain lowered the three month change in inventories to 5.5% (AR), less than half the 12.1% peak rate of accumulation through last August. The ratio of inventories-to-sales fell back to the record low of 1.30.
Retail inventories rose 0.2% in April, the same as during a downwardly revised March. The three month change in retail inventories fell to 3.1% versus the peak of 12.4% one year ago. Excluding autos inventories also repeated a 0.2% gain in April and the three month rate of accumulation fell to 3.9% from 11.0% just this past January. Growth in inventories of furniture & electronics dropped to 4.3% from 18.5%, general merchandise inventory accumulation slowed to 7.3% from 12.1% and apparel inventories rose 5.8% versus a three month rate of gain of 12.2% through March.
Factory sector inventories ticked up just 0.1% in April and three month growth fell to 5.8%, half the three month rate in March.
Wholesale inventories rose a strong 0.8% but here too the three month growth rate of 8.2% is less than half last summer's peak rate of gain. During the last ten years there has been a 64% correlation between the y/y change in wholesale inventories and the change in imports of merchandise.
Overall business sales rose a sharp 1.2% (8.3% y/y).
| Business Inventories | April | March | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.3% | 0.5% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 1.4% | 1.6% |
| Retail | 0.2% | 0.2% | 3.6% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 5.9% |
| Retail excl. Autos | 0.2% | 0.2% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 2.0% | 2.3% |
| Wholesale | 0.8% | 0.6% | 11.8% | 10.8% | 2.0% | 1.2% |
| Manufacturing | 0.1% | 0.7% | 8.6% | 7.5% | -1.3% | -1.8% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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