Global| Mar 13 2014U.S. Business Inventories Continue to Post a Firm Increase
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Total business inventories increased 0.4% in January (3.9% y/y) after a 0.5% December rise. These gains were accompanied a 0.9% decline (+2.5% y/y) in business sales after December's 0.1% slip. As a result, the inventory-to-sales [...]
Total business inventories increased 0.4% in January (3.9% y/y) after a 0.5% December rise. These gains were accompanied a 0.9% decline (+2.5% y/y) in business sales after December's 0.1% slip. As a result, the inventory-to-sales ratio rose to 1.32, the highest level since 2009.
In the retail sector, inventories advanced 0.4% (6.3% y/y) in January. Retail inventories excluding autos rose 0.7% (4.0% y/y). General merchandise inventories jumped 0.9% (3.9% y/y) while clothing inventories gained 0.8% (3.2% y/y). Inventories of building supplies ticked up 0.1% (2.9% y/y). To the downside, motor vehicle inventories slipped 0.1% (+11.4% y/y). Inventories of furniture, electronics and appliances declined 0.7% (-1.3% y/y) and clothing inventories were off 0.8% (+3.2% y/y). The I/S ratio in the retail sector continued upward to 1.46, its highest level since 2009. The nonauto I/S ratio of 1.25 also was its highest since early 201
Merchant wholesale inventories posted a 0.6% rise (3.6% y/y). That left the I/S ratio at 1.20, up off its least but below the highs of early last year. Nondurable goods distributors inventories rebounded 0.8% (1.8% y/y), prompted by a modest 2.1% gain (-8.8% y/y) in petroleum. Durable wholesale inventories rose a lessened 0.4% (4.9% y/y). That left the overall wholesale I/S ratio up a notch at 1.20. Factory sector inventories increased a lessened 0.2% (2.0% y/y) but the I/S ratio was a slightly increased 1.30.
Business sales were weak for the second month. Merchant wholesale sales declined 1.9% (+3.9% y/y). They were pulled lower by a 7.5% drop (+10.0 % y/y) in petroleum sales. Retail sales rose a modest 0.3% (1.3% y/y) but excluding autos, sales were off 0.2% (+1.6% y/y). Shipments from the factory sector fell 0.3% (+1.6% y/y), the same as during December.
The manufacturing and trade data are in Haver's USECON database.
| Business Inventories (%) | Jan | Dec | Nov | Jan Y/Y | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 7.9 |
| Retail | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 6.3 | 7.3 | 8.0 | 3.9 |
| Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 3.6 |
| Merchant Wholesalers | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 5.5 | 9.2 |
| Manufacturing | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 10.2 |
| Business Sales (%) | |||||||
| Total | -0.9 | -0.1 | 0.7 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 4.4 | 11.0 |
| Retail | 0.3 | -0.6 | -0.2 | 1.3 | 4.3 | 5.1 | 7.7 |
| Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | -0.2 | 0.3 | -0.3 | 1.6 | 3.3 | 4.8 | 7.0 |
| Merchant Wholesalers | -1.9 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 12.8 |
| Manufacturing | -0.3 | -0.3 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 4.0 | 12.1 |
| I/S Ratio | |||||||
| Total | 1.32 | 1.30 | 1.29 | 1.30 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.27 |
| Retail | 1.46 | 1.45 | 1.44 | 1.41 | 1.41 | 1.38 | 1.36 |
| Retail Excl. Motor Vehicles | 1.25 | 1.24 | 1.23 | 1.22 | 1.22 | 1.21 | 1.23 |
| Merchant Wholesalers | 1.20 | 1.18 | 1.17 | 1.21 | 1.19 | 1.19 | 1.17 |
| Manufacturing | 1.30 | 1.29 | 1.28 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.29 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
