Global| Jun 12 2013U.S. Budget Deficit Grows Modestly
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Federal Government ran a budget deficit during May of FY'13 of $138.7B, slightly larger than the $124.6B during May of last year. The figure compared to consensus expectations for a $109B deficit. So far this fiscal year the [...]
The Federal Government ran a budget deficit during May of FY'13 of $138.7B, slightly larger than the $124.6B during May of last year. The figure compared to consensus expectations for a $109B deficit. So far this fiscal year the deficit totaled $626.3B, down from $844.5B during the first eight months of FY'12.
An improved economy raised revenues a strong 15.1% so far this fiscal year versus last. That's been driven by a 19.5% y/y gain in individual income taxes and a 19.8% y/y rise in corporate income tax payments. Social insurance payments jumped an accelerated 10.8% y/y while excise taxes grew 8.6% y/y.
The minimal 0.8% y/y year-to-date rise in outlays was restrained by a 4.3% decline in defense expenditures. Medicare payments rose 14.6% y/y and veterans benefits grew 17.1%. Social security benefits rose 5.5% this fiscal year versus last while income security outlays increased just 2.2 y/y with the lower unemployment rate. The gain in health outlays also was a moderate 3.7% y/y.
Haver's basic data on Federal Government outlays and receipts, and summary presentations of the Budget from both OMB and CBO are contained in USECON. Considerable detail is given in the separate GOVFIN database.
Fiscal Headwinds: Is the Other Shoe About to Drop? from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco is available here .
| US Government Finance | May | FY'12 | FY'11 | FY'10 | FY'09 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budget Balance | -- | $-138.7 | $-1,089B | $-1,298.7B | $-1,294.2B | $-1,415.7B |
| As a percent of GDP | -- | -- | 7.0 | 8.6 | 8.0 | 9.5 |
| % of Total | YTD FY'13 | |||||
| Net Revenues (Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 15.1% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 2.7% | -16.6% |
| Individual Income Taxes | 47 | 19.5 | 3.7 | 21.5 | -1.8 | -20.1 |
| Corporate Income Taxes | 8 | 19.8 | 33.8 | -5.4 | 38.5 | -54.6 |
| Social Insurance Taxes | 36 | 10.8 | 3.2 | -5.3 | -2.9 | -1.0 |
| Excise Taxes | 3 | 8.6 | 9.2 | 8.2 | 7.1 | -7.2 |
| Net Outlays (Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 0.8 | -1.7 | 4.1 | -1.8 | 18.2 |
| National Defense | 20 | -4.3 | -3.6 | 1.7 | 4.6 | 7.6 |
| Health | 10 | 3.7 | -7.0 | 1.0 | 10.4 | 19.1 |
| Medicare | 20 | 14.6 | -2.8 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 10.1 |
| Income Security | 17 | 2.2 | -9.2 | -4.1 | 16.7 | 24.9 |
| Social Security | 20 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 10.7 |
| Veterans Benefits | 4 | 17.1 | -2.0 | 17.3 | 13.6 | 12.7 |
| Interest | 6 | -1.6 | -2.1 | 15.8 | 2.9 | -24.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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