Global| Jan 06 2016U.S. ADP Reports Strongest Job Gain in 12 Months
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated that nonfarm private sector payrolls rose 257,000 during December following a 211,000 November increase, revised from 217,000. The latest increase was firmer than expectations for a [...]
The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated that nonfarm private sector payrolls rose 257,000 during December following a 211,000 November increase, revised from 217,000. The latest increase was firmer than expectations for a 198,000 rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. It was the largest gain since December 2014 and capped off twelve months of 2.0% growth. During the last ten years, there has been a 97% correlation between the change in the ADP figure and the change in nonfarm private sector payrolls as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The ADP Research Institute survey is based on ADP's business payroll transaction system covering 411,000 companies and nearly 24 million employees. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS establishment survey data. The ADP data cover private sector employment, not government.
Large businesses led last month's job growth with a 97,000 rise (2.0% y/y), the largest gain in three months. Small business hiring strengthened 95,000 (2.2% y/y) which was the firmest increase since June. Amongst medium-sized employers, payrolls gained a fairly steady 65,000 (1.8% y/y).
The pace of hiring in the goods-producing sector of the economy picked up to 23,000 (0.6% y/y), the strongest rise since January. The strength was led by a 24,000 hiring increase (4.1% y/y) in the construction sector. Factory sector jobs rose a modest 2,000 (-0.1% y/y). Service industry hiring grew a strengthened 234,000 last month (2.3% y/y), the largest increase since November 2014. Payrolls in professional & business services jumped 66,000 (2.4% y/y) while employment in trade, transportation & utilities industries improved 38,000 (1.8% y/y). The number of financial activities jobs rose a steady 13,000 (2.0% y/y).
The ADP National Employment Report data are maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical figures date back to April 2001 for the total and industry breakdown and back to January 2005 for the business size breakout. The expectation figure is available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
The minutes to the latest FOMC meeting can be found here.
| ADP/Moody's National Employment Report | Dec | Nov | Oct | Dec Y/Y | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m chg, 000s) | 257 | 211 | 173 | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 1.9% |
| Small Payroll (1-49) | 95 | 72 | 81 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.9 |
| Medium Payroll (50-499) | 65 | 59 | 57 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 2.2 |
| Large Payroll (>500) | 97 | 80 | 35 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| Goods-Producing | 23 | -2 | -2 | 0.6 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.7 |
| Construction | 24 | 5 | 15 | 4.1 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 3.5 |
| Manufacturing | 2 | 4 | -7 | -0.1 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| Service-Producing | 234 | 213 | 175 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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