Global| Apr 29 2019Texas Factory Sector Growth Weakens; Expectations Steady
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas reported in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the General Business Activity Index declined to 2.0 during April and added to its March retreat. Nevertheless, the index remained well above [...]
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas reported in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the General Business Activity Index declined to 2.0 during April and added to its March retreat. Nevertheless, the index remained well above its low of -6.9 in December 2018.
Weakness in the April index reflected lower readings for employment, wages & benefits and delivery times. The production figure improved as did capacity utilization, new orders and capital spending.
The finished goods prices received index was fairly steady m/m at a level well below the high in June of last year, but the raw materials price index fell sharply.
The index of expected business conditions in six months held steady m/m at 18.4, but remained down sharply from the high in January of last year. The production, new orders, shipments, employment and wage figures each weakened.
Each index is calculated by subtracting the percentage reporting a decrease from the percentage reporting an increase. When all firms report rising activity, an index will register 100. An index will register -100 when all firms report a decrease. An index will be zero when the number of firms reporting an increase or decrease is equal. Items may not add up to 100% because of rounding. Data for the Texas Manufacturing Outlook can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database.
| Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (SA, % Balance) | Apr | Mar | Feb | Apr'18 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current General Business Activity Index | 2.0 | 6.9 | 11.6 | 21.7 | 25.8 | 20.6 | -8.9 |
| Production | 12.4 | 10.5 | 9.2 | 25.1 | 21.8 | 20.2 | 2.4 |
| Growth Rate of New Orders | 5.2 | -2.0 | 3.5 | 18.6 | 14.8 | 11.4 | -7.3 |
| Employment | 4.6 | 12.2 | 11.7 | 18.3 | 20.0 | 11.4 | -4.9 |
| Wages & Benefits | 28.2 | 30.0 | 28.8 | 29.7 | 29.7 | 22.2 | 17.6 |
| Prices Received for Finished Goods | 6.0 | 6.5 | 4.8 | 17.0 | 17.6 | 12.7 | -1.6 |
| General Business Activity Index Expected in Six Months | 18.4 | 18.4 | 16.4 | 31.5 | 31.6 | 34.5 | 8.9 |
| Production | 41.3 | 51.5 | 44.5 | 52.9 | 48.5 | 46.8 | 35.8 |
| Growth Rate of New Orders | 27.5 | 32.4 | 30.4 | 38.3 | 35.9 | 37.7 | 24.3 |
| Employment | 33.4 | 37.5 | 32.9 | 35.7 | 37.6 | 35.2 | 16.7 |
| Wages & Benefits | 38.8 | 54.3 | 46.8 | 50.7 | 50.4 | 43.4 | 34.9 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
