Global| Jul 11 2008OECD LEIs Getting Ever Weaker…
Summary
The OECD cyclically adjusted leading indicators are pointing severely lower. Japan continues to point to recovery in the LEI scheme of the OPED, yet many Japanese domestic indicators continue to unravel such as its consumer confidence [...]
The OECD cyclically adjusted leading indicators are pointing severely lower. Japan continues to point to recovery in the LEI scheme of the OPED, yet many Japanese domestic indicators continue to unravel such as its consumer confidence report, freshly released today, a report that is up-to-date for consumer feelings through June and shows continued deterioration.
German data have been getting weaker and so have French and Italian reports. The slide in the EMU region is documented here as well as in the EMU’s own statistics.
The US signal is flattening out in the OECD framework and is
not showing as deep a decline as it did in the last US recession - but
it is a significant drop and slowdown. The OECD metrics are pointing to
a broad-based slowdown and only show good news in train for Japan where
Japan’s own domestic series do not seem to reflect the OECD’s optimism.
| OECD Trend-restored leading Indicators | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth progression-SAAR | ||||
| 3-Mos | 6-Mos | 12-Mos | Yr-Ago | |
| OECD | -3.9% | -2.7% | -2.6% | 1.8% |
| OECD7 | -3.0% | -3.2% | -3.3% | 1.1% |
| OECD Europe | -4.5% | -3.8% | -2.8% | 1.2% |
| OECD Japan | 1.1% | 0.9% | -2.4% | 0.0% |
| OECD US | -3.6% | -4.1% | -3.7% | 1.8% |
| Six month readings at 6-Mo Intervals: | ||||
| Recent six | 6-Mo Ago | 12-Mo Ago | 18-Mo Ago | |
| OECD | -2.7% | -2.6% | 2.6% | 1.1% |
| OECD7 | -3.2% | -3.5% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| OECD Europe | -3.8% | -1.8% | 1.1% | 1.3% |
| OECD Japan | 0.9% | -5.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| OECD US | -4.1% | -3.2% | 2.8% | 0.8% |
| Slowdowns indicated by BOLD RED | ||||
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
