Global| Dec 20 2005NAHB Housing Market Index: Down Hard Again
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The National Association of Home Builders' (NAHB) Composite Housing Market Index fell again in December; by four points on top of a seven point November decline. The decline to 57 dropped the index to the lowest level since April 2003 [...]
The National Association of Home Builders' (NAHB) Composite Housing Market Index fell again in December; by four points on top of a seven point November decline. The decline to 57 dropped the index to the lowest level since April 2003 and the index ended the year roughly 20% below the year end 2004 level.
During the last twenty years the y/y change in the annual composite index has had an 85% correlation with the change in single family housing starts and there has been a 75% correlation between the current sales index and new single family home sales.
The m/m drop reflected sharp declines throughout the country, notably in the West.
The index for current sales of single family homes in December fell sharply to the lowest level since May 2003 while the index for sales in six months also fell hard the lowest in over two years.
Traffic of prospective home buyers plunged to its lowest level since the Spring of 2003.
The NAHB index is a diffusion index based on a survey of builders. Readings above 50 signal that more builders view conditions as good than poor.
Visit the National Association of Home Builders.
| Nat'l Association of Home Builders | Dec | Nov | Dec '04 | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite Housing Market Index | 57 | 61 | 71 | 67 | 68 | 64 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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