Global| Jul 26 2018Kansas City Federal Reserve Factory Index Deteriorates
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City reported that its index of regional manufacturing sector business activity declined to 23 in July, the lowest level since March. The index remained higher than its low of -12 in December 2015. [...]
The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City reported that its index of regional manufacturing sector business activity declined to 23 in July, the lowest level since March. The index remained higher than its low of -12 in December 2015.
The ISM-Adjusted index also backpedaled to 60.7 (NSA) from 64.0 which was near the record high. During the last ten years, there has been a 57% correlation between this index and the q/q change in real GDP.
Movement amongst the index components was mostly negative this month. The new orders, shipments, production and order backlog readings declined, but supplier delivery times rose, indicating the slowest product delivery speeds since March. The export order reading held steady at 6, up from negative readings from 2012 through 2016.
The employment reading improved slightly and matched its record high. Thirty-five percent of respondents reported increased hiring while eight percent reported a decline in job levels. The employee workweek measure declined sharply after reaching a record high in June.
The index of finished goods prices increased and neared its 2008 high. Twenty-six percent of respondents paid higher prices, while three percent paid less. The raw materials prices index remained elevated.
The overall expectations index slipped as well, but remained near its record high. Expected orders and production fell while expected employment rose. Expected export orders were little changed m/m but were down sharply from a January high. The expected workweek also fell sharply.
Expected finished goods prices improved m/m but remained well below their April high. The reading was up sharply versus 2015. Expected raw materials prices rose m/m, but also remained strong versus the 2015 low.
The diffusion indexes are calculated as the percentage of total respondents reporting increases minus the percentage reporting declines. The survey included 94 responses from plants in Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Wyoming and northern New Mexico. Data for the Kansas City Fed Survey can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database.
| Kansas City Federal Reserve Manufacturing Survey (SA) | Jul | Jun | May | Jul '17 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conditions Versus One Month Ago (% Balance) | 23 | 28 | 29 | 12 | 14 | -2 | -5 |
| ISM-Adjusted Composite Index (NSA) | 60.7 | 64.0 | 64.2 | 55.0 | 56.7 | 48.5 | 46.8 |
| New Orders Volume | 21 | 27 | 38 | 13 | 17 | -1 | -7 |
| Number of Employees | 26 | 24 | 24 | 16 | 15 | -6 | -10 |
| Production | 22 | 38 | 41 | 10 | 17 | 1 | -5 |
| Prices Received for Finished Product | 27 | 22 | 22 | 6 | 7 | -7 | -5 |
| Expected Conditions in Six Months | 34 | 36 | 26 | 21 | 26 | 9 | 4 |
| New Orders Volume | 37 | 42 | 26 | 28 | 35 | 19 | 11 |
| Number of Employees | 42 | 37 | 35 | 28 | 31 | 8 | 6 |
| Production | 49 | 53 | 32 | 31 | 41 | 20 | 12 |
| Prices Received for Finished Product | 43 | 40 | 44 | 13 | 27 | 7 | 9 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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