Global| Sep 10 2003Japan GDP Revised Higher with Stronger Business Investment
Summary
The Japanese economy continues some improvement. The Cabinet Offices Economic and Social Research Institute today (10 September) published a marked upward revision to second quarter GDP from the initial a 0.6% quarterly rate to 1.0%. [...]
The Japanese economy continues some improvement. The Cabinet Office’s Economic and Social Research Institute today (10 September) published a marked upward revision to second quarter GDP from the initial a 0.6% quarterly rate to 1.0%. The gain came from stronger investment in plant and equipment. These outlays were revised from 1.3% quarterly growth, already a respectable expansion, to a substantial 4.7%. Consumption spending was raised modestly from 0.3% in the first report to 0.4%. Net exports also contributed to GDP growth, although not more than originally reported, as a slight downward revision to export growth offset the boost to domestic production from reduced imports. Government consumption and investment both fell.
The second quarter marked the sixth consecutive quarter of growth for total GDP and with this revision, made it the strongest since the fourth quarter of 2000, just before the 2001 recession. The gains in investment are more recent, only turning up in the middle of last year. Separate data on manufacturing industries suggest that electronic components are a driving force and even the semiconductor industry’s "book-to-bill" ratio has risen well above 1.0 for the past two months (1.57 and 1.40 in June and July, respectively), indicating that activity in that sector might continue to expand.
| GDP & Selected Components: % Changes |
2nd Qtr 2003 (Q/Q) |
1st Qtr 2003 (Q/Q) |
Year/ Year |
4th Qtr/4th Qtr
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | 2001 | 2000 | ||||
| Total GDP | 1.0 | 0.6 | 3.0 | 2.5 | -1.6 | 3.2 |
| Private Consumption | 0.4 | 0.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 0.5 |
| Private Nonresidential Investment | 4.7 | 2.5 | 14.0 | 4.2 | -12.0 | 16.9 |
| Exports | 0.8 | 0.6 | 5.9 | 17.7 | -11.0 | 10.2 |
| Imports | -1.6 | 0.6 | 3.1 | 8.8 | -7.4 | 10.5 |
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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