Global| Jul 03 2017ISM Factory Sector Index Strengthens
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The ISM factory sector composite index improved to 57.8 during June from May's reading of 54.9. It was the highest point since August 2014. A level of 55.0 had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Earlier figures [...]
The ISM factory sector composite index improved to 57.8 during June from May's reading of 54.9. It was the highest point since August 2014. A level of 55.0 had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Earlier figures reflect benchmark revision.
Strength in the component series was widespread. The new orders series gained to 63.5, up from the low of 57.5 three months earlier. The production index rose to 62.4, a four-month high. The supplier deliveries index jumped to 57.0, indicating the slowest pace of product delivery speeds since December 2014. The inventories series fell to 49.0, the lowest level in three months.
The employment figure jumped to 57.2, a three-month high. During the last eight years there has been an 85% correlation between the index and the m/m change in factory sector employment. Twenty-eight percent (NSA) of respondents reported higher employment while 11% indicated a decline.
The prices paid index retreated to 55.0, down from the high of 70.5 three months earlier. It was the lowest prices index since November. Twenty-seven percent (NSA) of respondents reported paying higher prices while 17 percent paid less.
The ISM figures are diffusion indexes where a reading above 50 indicates increase. The figures from the Institute for Supply Management can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations number can be found in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
The Path Forward for U.S. Monetary Policy in a Global Context from James Bullard, President & CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, can be found here.
| ISM Mfg (SA) | Jun | May | Apr | Jun'16 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite Index | 57.8 | 54.9 | 54.8 | 52.8 | 51.5 | 51.4 | 55.6 |
| New Orders | 63.5 | 59.5 | 57.5 | 55.6 | 54.7 | 52.6 | 58.9 |
| Production | 62.4 | 57.1 | 58.6 | 54.8 | 54.0 | 53.5 | 59.2 |
| Employment | 57.2 | 53.5 | 52.0 | 50.0 | 49.7 | 51.0 | 54.4 |
| Supplier Deliveries | 57.0 | 53.1 | 55.1 | 54.9 | 51.9 | 50.7 | 55.0 |
| Inventories | 49.0 | 51.5 | 51.0 | 48.5 | 47.2 | 49.0 | 50.8 |
| Prices Paid Index (NSA) | 55.0 | 60.5 | 68.5 | 60.5 | 53.5 | 39.8 | 55.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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