Global| Apr 07 2009Gasoline Prices Hold Prior Weeks' Gains
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Regular gasoline prices last week held firm at $2.04 per gallon, the highest level since last November. The latest was up 42 cents from the December low. Yesterday, the spot market price for regular gasoline also remained firm at [...]
Regular
gasoline prices last week held firm at $2.04 per gallon, the
highest level since last November. The latest was up 42 cents from the
December low. Yesterday, the spot market price for regular gasoline
also remained firm at $1.37 per gallon. That was roughly unchanged from
the prior two weeks but up from under $1.00 at the end of last year.
The figures are reported by the U.S. Department of Energy.
Weekly gasoline prices can be found in Haver's WEEKLY database. Daily prices are in the DAILY database.
Crude oil 
prices backpedaled from their
earlier high as
estimates of crude oil production strengthened. The American Petroleum
Institute indicated that production rose in the latest week by 7.8%
y/y. That increase compares with a decline in crude oil production of
2.1% during all of last year. Inventories of crude oil also were
strong, as estimated by DOE's Energy Information Association.
Inventories rose 15.6% following the 9.0% increase in 2008. The
inventory and production figures lowered the price for a barrel of West
Texas Intermediate to $50.32 from the recent high of $53.09. However,
that remained up more than 50% from the December low of $32.37 per
barrel. In futures trading the May contract price for crude oil fell
back yesterday to a still firm $51.05 per barrel. Prices reached a high
of $145.66 last July.
The figures on crude oil production and inventories are available in Haver's Weekly Oil Statistics database.
Gasoline demand last week fell 0.2% y/y
versus the 4.8% rate of decline seen last October. (Gasoline prices at
the time were just off their peak.) The change in demand is measured
using the latest four weeks versus the same four weeks in 2008. Demand
for all 
petroleum products was down 4.4% y/y. That
negative comparison was led by a 9.1% decline in distillate demand.
Demand for residual rose a modest 1.2%. These numbers are available in
Haver's OILWKLY database.
The price of natural gas continued downward with the coming end to the winter heating season. Prices fell to $3.64 per mmbtu (-61.7% y/y) which was near the lowest level since 2002. The latest average price was down more than two-thirds from the high reached in early-July of $13.19/mmbtu.
The Panic of 2008 is the title of yesterday's speech by Fed Governor Kevin Warsh and it can be found here.
| Weekly Prices | 04/06/09 | 03/30/09 | Y/Y | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Regular Gasoline ($ per Gallon, Regular) | 2.04 | 2.05 | -38.9% | 3.25 | 2.80 | 2.57 |
| Light Sweet Crude Oil, WTI ($ per bbl.) | 50.32 | 53.09 | -51.4% | 100.16 | 72.25 | 66.12 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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