Global| Oct 29 2007France's Service Sector Holds Its Strength
Summary
Readings are mostly firm, strong. France's service sector continues to claim strong readings. While Euro area and French manufacturing measures have softened, the service sector continues to post its strongest overall reading since [...]
Readings are mostly firm, strong.
France's service sector continues to claim strong readings. While Euro area and French manufacturing measures have softened, the service sector continues to post its strongest overall reading since 2000. The outlook index shows a bit more weakness, dropping by one point in October and holding to the 87th percentile in its range. Sales held to their second strongest reading on the period and were flat on the month. Expected sales (next 3-months) slipped by one point and remained in their 82nd percentile. Price expectations slipped and were in the 30th to 40th percentiles. Employment readings showed current of ‘observed' employment in only its 40th percentile but expected employment (3-mos) was at 100%. Viva la optimism!
The service sector readings indicate that for France at least
expectations remain somewhat compartmentalized. Manufacturing
indicators have been weakening but the services survey shows no hint of
this or fear of its consequences. The same goes for the unrelenting
rise in the euro which has brought forth a good deal of negative
commentaries from French officials. There appears to have been no
spillover impact into the services sector stemming from these sorts of
concerns. Still, the upward momentum in the services index has clearly
slowed both for the climate and the outlook indicators. We may soon see
if the service sector is really this strong or if survey participants
have just been excessively optimistic.
| France INSEE Services Survey Jan 2000-date | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 07 |
Sep 07 |
Aug 07 |
Jul 07 |
%tile | Rank | Max | Min | Range | Mean | |
| Climate Indicator | 113 | 112 | 113 | 113 | 100.0 | 1 | 113 | 83 | 30 | 102 |
| Climate: 3-Mo MAV | 113 | 113 | 112 | 111 | 100.0 | 1 | 113 | 85 | 28 | 102 |
| Climate: 12-Mo MAV | 110 | 110 | 110 | 109 | 100.0 | 1 | 110 | 91 | 20 | 101 |
| Outlook | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 87.9 | 11 | 11 | -22 | 33 | -1 |
| Sales | ||||||||||
| Observed 3-mos | 18 | 18 | 16 | 13 | 96.7 | 2 | 19 | -11 | 30 | 6 |
| Expected 3-Mos | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 82.1 | 12 | 18 | -10 | 28 | 7 |
| Sales Price | ||||||||||
| Observed over 3-Mos | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 33.3 | 34 | 8 | -4 | 12 | 0 |
| Expected over 3-Mos | -1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 40.0 | 59 | 5 | -5 | 10 | 1 |
| Employment | ||||||||||
| Observed over 3-Mos | 3 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 41.2 | 50 | 23 | -11 | 34 | 5 |
| Expected over 3-Mos | 17 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 100.0 | 1 | 17 | -5 | 22 | 5 |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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