Global| Mar 24 2009Flash PMIs Bottom Out
Summary
The manufacturing and Services indices from Markit show that Euro Area PMIs have risen form the bottoms in this cycle. The moves are small and the included chart demonstrates that the move is without much vigor. The services sector is [...]
The manufacturing and Services indices from Markit show that
Euro Area PMIs have risen form the bottoms in this cycle. The moves are
small and the included chart demonstrates that the move is without much
vigor. The services sector is showing the most substantial rebound.
Still the services index remains in the lower 3.5% of its
range and the MFG index is in the bottom of 1.6% of its range both
since August 1998.
These reports are the first for March and they are the first
signs that the pace of decline in the European economy may be slowing.
They are still very weak signals since each resides well below the
neutral level for this survey which is at a value of 50. Neither survey
has developed any sort of upward momentum. So far all we have is a sign
of a lesser pace of decline, not of any actual improvement. But this is
how the end of the severe phase of recession looks. And it will be good
to get that behind us. Once this phase ends remedial actions have more
potential to help the economy. .
| FLASH Readings | ||
|---|---|---|
| Markit PMIs for the Euro Area | ||
| MFG | Services | |
| Mar-09 | 33.97 | 40.06 |
| Feb-09 | 33.55 | 39.24 |
| Jan-09 | 34.42 | 42.16 |
| Dec-08 | 33.87 | 42.06 |
| Averages | ||
| 3-Mo | 33.95 | 40.49 |
| 6-Mo | 37.25 | 41.96 |
| 12-Mo | 43.41 | 45.72 |
| 127-Mo Range | ||
| High | 60.47 | 62.36 |
| Low | 33.55 | 39.24 |
| % Range | 1.6% | 3.5% |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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